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Disclaimer – Analysis is NOT a BUY/SELL/HOLD Recommendation. It can be used for educational purposes. There can be lot of things which have been missed in analysis either due to lack of information or oversight etc.. Do your own diligence & contact your expert financial adviser before making any investment decision.
Astra Microwave Products Limited (Astra) was incorporated in 1991 by a team of distinguished scientists with experience in RF/Microwave/Digital Electronics and management of projects with high technology content. Astra Microwave Products Limited, engaged in the business of design, development and manufacture of RF and Microwave Components, sub-systems and systems used in defense, space, meteorology and telecommunication
With over 30 years of experience in microwave radio frequency (RF) applications, AMPL has moved up the value chain from sub-systems to high value-added systems
Astra has 3 Automatic assembly lines for PCBA assembly, 5 class 10K cleanrooms, functional test infrastructure that extends from 30MHz up to 40GHz, in-house Environment test facilities including EMI/EMC facility and a first for any Indian Private Industry – Near Field Antenna test and measurement range.
Total workforce (as on March 31st, 2023) – 1,290
Subsidiaries
In fiscal 2014, AMPL floated the 100% owned BEPL as a captive supplier of raw material for overseas orders. In fiscal 2015, AMPL floated the 100% owned ASPL in Singapore, as a supplier of MMIC products for semi-conductors. In fiscal 2019, AMPL set up a joint venture, Astra Rafael Comsys Pvt Ltd, with Rafael Advanced Defence Systems for production of communication systems and sub-systems for defence.
Product Portfolio
The company’s product portfolio spans across Defense, Space, Meteorology, Homeland Security and Systems Vertical
Has a diverse range of microwave products like filters, transmitters, receivers, antennas etc.

Manufacturing facilities
5 facilities in Hyderabad, Continuous investment in World Class Infrastructure for Assembly, Functional and Environment testing. Astra’s facilities are approved by several foreign companies for production
R&D Capabilities
Track record of new product development; now graduated to a SYSTEM integrator in Radar. Dedicated R&D facility at Bengaluru to manufacture radars
Strong in-house capability in the microwave radio frequency (RF) applications domain.
Executes orders through BTS (Build To Specifications) and BTP (Build To Print) route
Customers and Regions of Revenue

Geographical spread of total revenue stands as follows: India – 60% and Exports – 40%
Defense
Space
Hydro/Meteorology
Other areas of work
Awards and Certifications
The company has various certificates such as AS9100D & BS EN ISO 9001:2015, ISO27001:2013, ISO9001:2015, ISO14001:2015, ISO45001:2018, ISO/IEC17025:2017.
Awards
LAToT Ceremony for Coastal Surveillance Radar
Excellence in Innovation, Design Technology, R&D 2021
Counter-Drone System LAToT Handing over Ceremony
Award for Excellence in Aerospace lndigenisation-2021
ELCINA EFY Award for Business Excellence
Debt to equity is under control < 1
ROCE> 17
Pledge 0%
Short and long term liquidity under control


Recent Q1FY24 have been weaker than expected

Various tailwinds in the defence sector are creating a wide range of opportunities for Indian firms. Company expected to hit 6000-8000cr cumulative revenue in next 5 years if TAM is correctly addressed

Defence spend in India has received a mega boost
Opportunities to develop and supply products which are published as negative import list by GOI
Government of India’s Atma Nirbhar Bharat initiatives
Favorable policy initiatives like Buy (IDDM – Indigenously Designed, Developed and Manufactured),MAKE-II, MAKE-Ill





Expansions and Acquisitions for future growth
QIP has been done at 270 rs for Reducing working capital and corporate purposes
Operating margins can improve further
Focusing on domestic defense order can lead to 20% OPM in coming years.
We aim to achieve 70% Domestic 30% Export Revenue distribution over next 2-3 years. Domestic business on an average carries 40 to 45% of gross margin as against 8 to 10% gross margin in exports.
Order inflows
Orders are worth an aggregate amount Rs. 158 crores for supply of Software Defined Radio (SDR) by Astra Rafael Comsys Private Limited (Joint Venture) Company has received an order from India Meteorological Department (IMD) for Supply of C-Band Dual Polarized SSPA based Doppler Weather Radars for a total value of Rs.32.97 crores. Order is to be executed within a period of 18 months.
Orderbook as of March 2023 is Rs. 1,544 crores. This order book consists of only 24% of export orders rest 76% are domestic orders. The BTP segment is a major contributor of our export orders, which are executable in the next 24 months. The sales mix is anticipated to be skewed towards domestic, high margin business.
Orders are worth an aggregate amount order(s)/contract(s) awarded in brief; of Rs.16.8 crores for supply of Satellite sub-systems and weather data processing system from ISRO
Company has bagged orders worth Rs.158 crores for supply of Satellite sub-systems, Airborne Radar and sub-systems of Radar and EW projects, from DRDO, ISRO and DPSU’s
Targeting JV and exploring fields like
Through JV or strategic alliances, offer improved technology and products.
Target the offset requirement in large defence procurement programmes of Gol.
In discussion with our JV partners to develop EO (electro-optics) product line. Bidding for the whole system – the complete radar system – for both DRDO and for future MoD requirements
Risks
Lumpy nature of domestic defence/space programs –Orders come in bulk and so are the payments.
Large working capital requirement: Gross current assets (GCAs) improved to 346 days as on March 31, 2022, from 398 days a year before, led by reduction in debtor days. GCAs are expected at around 400 days over the near to medium term with increased execution of domestic orders. The group primarily caters to domestic defence research and space establishments that usually have a long production cycle and longer working capital cycle compared with overseas orders. Though export revenue may be realised faster, it will be offset by stretch in receivables from domestic orders as domestic order execution is expected to increase in the future and thus working capital intensity would be a key monitorable. Furthermore, the group must maintain sizeable inventory to cater to all segments, as products are customised, and thus, requirements vary across segments.
Susceptibility to risks inherent in a tender-based business, and long gestation period for projects: The business depends on success in bidding for tenders invited by defence public sector undertakings and research establishments. Establishments such as the DRDO invite tenders from qualified vendors for their R&D requirement and commence bulk production on successful completion of product development. Long-term revenue visibility is primarily driven by the success of R&D projects at DRDO and the subsequent mass production of products.
Margins Volatility is high. Export vs domestic order execution changes margin profile and needs to be seen closely in coming quarters
Technicals on 25th Aug23

Disclosure –Invested. Do your own diligence before buying/selling
Disclaimer – Analysis is NOT a BUY/SELL/HOLD Recommendation. It can be used for educational purposes. There can be lot of things which have been missed in analysis either due to lack of information or oversight etc.. Do your own diligence & contact your expert financial adviser before making any investment decision.
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Charts are shared for educational/Study purposes
Do your own due diligence before buying selling
Sample is shown below
Those who want to get associated for short term or long term for such QUALITY TECHNICAL SETUPS (along with targets and Stop loss) can drop me a message on alphaaffairsf2f@gmail.com
or followme on Twitter @alphaaffairsf2f
Approximate commitment of 20 high quality bullish setups every month (approx 4-5 every week)
https://alpha-affairs.com/2023/03/13/alpha-technical-setups-13-mar-23/
https://alpha-affairs.com/2023/03/06/alpha-technical-setups-6-mar-23/
ALPHA TECHNICAL SETUPS 27-FEB-23









Charts are shared for educational/Study purposes
Do your own due diligence before buying selling
Sample is shown below
Those who want to get associated for short term or long term for such QUALITY TECHNICAL SETUPS (along with targets and Stop loss) can drop me a message on alphaaffairsf2f@gmail.com
or followme on Twitter @alphaaffairsf2f
Approximate commitment of 20 high quality bullish setups every month (approx 4-5 every week)
https://alpha-affairs.com/2023/03/13/alpha-technical-setups-13-mar-23/
https://alpha-affairs.com/2023/03/06/alpha-technical-setups-6-mar-23/
ALPHA TECHNICAL SETUPS 27-FEB-23








Disclaimer – Analysis is NOT a BUY/SELL/HOLD Recommendation. It can be used for educational purposes. There can be lot of things which have been missed in analysis either due to lack of information or oversight etc.. Do your own diligence & contact your expert financial adviser before making any investment decision.

Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd is primarily engaged in manufacturing and sale of forged components of automobiles, railway wagons & coaches and engineering parts. Company mission and vision is to be the most preferred supplier of forged, rolled, machined, fabricated and cast products for all end use industries like Railways, Automotive, Earth Moving, Mining, Farm Equipment, Oil & Gas and General Engineering globally by supplying products meeting highest quality standards at highly competitive costs
Manufacturing facilities
RKFL’s facilities in eastern India are located in close proximity to automobile manufacturing hubs and key suppliers of of raw material
Customers and Regions of Revenue and Product verticals
Products



Company focus is on de-risking business from few customers or few segments or few geographical areas
They have succeeded quite well in last 4 years
When a company has to grow to large company, many such things will give stability to company to perform well

Promoters have 40 years of experience in forging industry
PAT , ROE, ROCE, PAT margin showing improved profile
8x sales growth and 35x profit growth in 10 years
Stock price is also 20x in 10 years and its quite possible to become 2-3x in next 3 years with CAGR of 24-30% approximately



Debt to equity has come down considerably and now close to 1 while Debt to EBITDA also is planned to reduce to 1 by FY25
Cash conversion cycle has improved to 100 days and Working capital days has also improved
Topline and bottom-line has improved significantly in last 3 years and trajectory is expected to continue in similar fashion

FY23 Fundamentals ratios

Manufacturer and supplier of a variety of auto and non-auto components
Global presence with footprints in North America and Europe
2nd largest forging player in India with over 40 years of experience Promoter possessing multi-decade forgings industry experience
Continued focus on diversification with foray into EV components
Longstanding relationship with marquee customers
Outstanding Credit ratings –perfect recipe for large cap progerssion in coming years

Opportunity size in exports and domestically
There is a huge requirement in India and in various overseas countries. Compant exports are grwoung well

Capacity Enhancement and future growth from internal accruals
Commissioned 7,000T Press Line in 2021 and also commissioned a Warm Forging Line and a Fabrication Facility in 2021
The company has commissioned 23,800T of capacity as on 18th July 2023 and the remaining 32,500T will be commissioned by September and overall Increasing to 2,10,900T (current installed capacity 187000T)
In addition, the company has planned to setup cold forging capacity of 25,000T. The Company has sufficient capacity for the next phase of healthy & robust growth. Capacity ramp-up along with operating leverage will result in faster improvement in profitability
Cold Forging Press line to be commissioned by Q1FY25
Entire 100% capacity has been booked by an OEM, the contract of the same is valid for 7 years
Management guidance in Q1FY24 Call


Subsidiaries and Strategic Acquisitions
Company has done a JV with Titagarh rail company for manufacturing and supplying of forged wheels for Indian railways

Ramkrishna Forgings announces strategic acquisition of Multitech Auto Private Limited and its wholly owned subsidiary Mal Metalliks Private Limited along with Mal Auto Products Private Limited. This can lead to 20% of current revenue addition
Also company has done some acquisitions in ACIL , JMT auto and Tsuyo. This push will help company to foray into tractor, PV segments, Heat treatment, gears, BLDC EV segments


Industry growth rate
Various forecast showing industry will grow between 6-10% for next few years. Important to understand here is the industries the company caters to

All these segments have Government focus and will grow heavily in next 5-7 years. So I believe company is present in right segment and right regions (fastest and biggest regions)

Recent Order wins
Just listing few wins in last one year
Susceptibility to raw material cost could affect Company profitability.
US landing into recession may also trigger less future orders in short term. Stock may consolidate before moving up
Stiff competition from peers like Bharat forge but this risk is bit mitigated with many order wins recently and consistently
Higher revenue concentration from Auto segment and CV domain in that is a risk–though company is taking utmost steps to remove this risk as highlighted above
High capital working requirements remain a risk
JV falling off with Titagarh rails for reasons is a small risk
Railways not going ahead with orders and new tenders in coming time is another risk which we need to consistently monitor
Technicals on 22 July 23

Conclusion
If you have understood the triggers and industries it cater to + RISKS which can materialize and have patience then think of buying this company in every dip market offers else Ignore the stock
Stock might be up in short term and then give a chance to buy around 400-450 range for long term investment purpose
I am holding it from lower levels and I reserve the right to add more or exit as per company performance without a followup /update here
Disclaimer – Analysis is NOT a BUY/SELL/HOLD Recommendation. It can be used for educational purposes. There can be lot of things which have been missed in analysis either due to lack of information or oversight etc.. Do your own diligence & contact your expert financial adviser before making any investment decision.
In case you have any questions/ queries, please feel free to reach me through Contact Form
Do spread the word among your peers, family members or anyone who can benefit from this blog and asked them to subscribe. But be selfish and take care of yourself first by subscribing before they do.
Enjoy the day and your life. Don’t forget, we are alone in this grand universe and may not get a chance to live again.








Disclaimer – Analysis is NOT a BUY/SELL/HOLD Recommendation. It can be used for educational purposes. There can be lot of things which have been missed in analysis either due to lack of information or oversight etc.. Do your own diligence & contact your expert financial adviser before making any investment decision.
Ice Make Refrigeration Limited is a leading producer of Cold Rooms, Freezer, Refrigeration System and Chilling Plant, etc. having a plant at Dantali, Ahmedabad. Company is leading supplier of innovative cooling solutions and manufacturer of over 50 plus refrigeration equipment in India. The company has started its business with a mere of Rs. 3 lakh & has crossed the market cap of Rs. 500 crores recently
Manufacturing facilities
Company has two manufacturing units in Gujarat and Tamil Nadu and also they have setup one more unit of manufacturing in West Bengal that is expected to be operational in the next one month
R&D Capabilities, Employee strength
Employee strength 625+, increased from 560+ in last 2 years
Company keeps on introducing new products in market. Ice Make’s innovative equipment product range also includes ice cream mix
preparation for small and medium scale, specially designed mix plant units. Its chiller product range includes Air Cooled Chiller, Water Cooled Chiller, liquid Chiller, Brine Chiller, and Screw Chillers.

Customers and Regions of Revenue and Product verticals


The Company operates under key business verticals including Cold Room, Commercial Refrigeration, Industrial Refrigeration, Transport Refrigeration & Ammonia Refrigeration and caters to wide range of Industries in India and also exports its products to overseas clients in 24 countries
The diversification in IMRL’s client profile also remained healthy with top clients contributing only around 25-40% of its total revenue over the last three years ended FY22. Around 70% of IMRL’s revenue is generated from direct sales whereas the balance is through its dealers and distributors spread across the country


Awards and Certifications
The company over the years have received several awards and accolades including Indian Leadership Award for Industrial Development, Best Medium Enterprise Canara Bank and SKOCH Award for manufacturing, India SME 100 Award and Gold Award for Excellence within its Core Industry category

PAT , ROE PAT margin showing improved profile
Debt to equity has come down considerably
Cash conversion cycle has improved to 64 days and Working capital days has also improved


Topline and bottom-line has improved significantly in last 2 years

.New product launches in last few years as industry is evolving

Opportunity size
There is a huge requirement in India and in various overseas countries for innovative cooling and cold chain storage solutions and ICE Make is well positioned to take advantage of these opportunities. Continuous Penal business is expected to grow at a 14 % CAGR YOY & Cold Chain and storage business is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15% to 17% between years 2022 to 2027”
Need of cold chain infrastructure for Dairy, food and pharma

Capacity Enhancement
Company has acquired approximately 44,538 Sq. Mtr land situated at Mouje : Dhanwada, Taluka : Bavla, District : Ahmedabad, for “Continuous Panel” business. Project shall be fully functional by April 2024. Continuous penal business is a part of our refrigeration business which shall be used in big cold storage projects as well as in infrastructure projects
Company also setup one more unit of manufacturing in West Bengal that is expected to be operational in the next one month
Ice Make’s new project for Continuous PUF Panels has a revenue potential of over Rs. 200 crores in a single shift.
Subsidiaries and Acquisitions
Ice Make Refrigeration Limited has incorporated a Subsidiary of the Company in the name of ‘IceBest Private Limited’. As per the certificate of incorporation dated 28th December, 2022. runrate of 10cr expected, which will increase market share from east India
Industry growth rate
Various forecast showing industry will grow between 14-16% for next few years


Venturing into new markets
Expansion in east for manufacturing will help with voluminous products. Expansion in south, once the current lease gets over for subsidiary may happen. So company has that vision of expanding pan India
Recent Order win
lcemake has bagged Dairy Project for Design, Supply, Installation, and Commissioning of Civil, Mechanical & Electrical work for 1.0 LLPD (Exp. 1.5 LLPD) on Turnkey Basis at Haringhata, Dist. : Nadia, State : West Bengal, from West Bengal Livestock Development Corporation Limited (A Govt. of West Bengal Undertaking) for which the Company has received Award of Contract, amounting to Rs. 65.48 Crore including GST and all other charges / taxes. Entire Job including Handing over shall be completed within 540 days.
Scuttlebutt shared by one of fellows Yogesh whose family is in Icecream business–adding details with his permission

Susceptibility of IMRL’s profitability to volatile raw material prices. The main raw material used by IMRL in manufacturing comprise of polyurethane (PU) chemical and galvanized steel sheets along with components made from copper and aluminium. Prices of these products are volatile in nature (as PU is a crude oil derivative, while prices of metals are inherently volatile), it exposes IMRL’s profitability to adverse movement in these prices. Considering raw material cost constitutes ~75% of Cost of Sales, any variability in the same could affect IMRL’s profitability.
Further the nature of contracts are fixed, price can not be changed for existing contracts easily.
Stiff competition from organized big logistics players
Subdued performance of its wholly owned subsidiary viz. Bharat Refrigerations Private Limited (BRPL).
Technicals on 11 July 23

Disclaimer – Analysis is NOT a BUY/SELL/HOLD Recommendation. It can be used for educational purposes. There can be lot of things which have been missed in analysis either due to lack of information or oversight etc.. Do your own diligence & contact your expert financial adviser before making any investment decision.
In case you have any questions/ queries, please feel free to reach me through Contact Form
Do spread the word among your peers, family members or anyone who can benefit from this blog and asked them to subscribe. But be selfish and take care of yourself first by subscribing before they do.
Enjoy the day and your life. Don’t forget, we are alone in this grand universe and may not get a chance to live again.