Saurshakti
Author: Its real ALPHA
#Investor # Reader #Marathoner #Cyclist #Foodie #Traveler
#Helping people in Finances
Governor’s view : MPC
Social stock exchange : Unnati
What the donors have subscribed to is essentially a zero-coupon, zero-principal security.
It is neither a bond nor a share.
The securities cannot be traded and will carry a tenure equal to the duration of a given NGO’s project.
Smart or Oversmart move! Only time will tell
9X Capex
NERF : 3D modelling
Diwali to Diwali -3
▪ At present, India loses around 30% of its power generated due to transmission, distribution, billing generation and collection inefficiencies
▪ Theft is the one of the main causes of the high losses. Theft occurs in several ways, viz: by tapping power lines and tempering / by-passing meter etc
▪ Meters play a vital role in reduction of AT&C Losses – Replacement of defective meters by tamper proof electronic meters / smart meters – AMI / Smart metering to the consumer for reduction of commercial losses and billing and collection ease
▪ Smart meter has the following capabilities: – Smart Meters and AMI Meters have communication capability – It can register real time or near real time consumption of electricity or export both. – Read the meter both locally or remotely – Remote connection or disconnection of electricity – Remote communication facilities through GSM / GPRS / RF etc
Here comes the company which tackles the problem head on and manufacture smart meters
Genus Power
CMP 223
Stock PE 71, ROCE, ROE <10%, Debt to equity < 0.3 (based on screener)
Also Read Pick1, Pick2
➡️It is engaged in manufacturing and providing Metering and Metering Solutions and undertaking ‘Engineering, Construction, and Contracts’ on a turnkey basis
➡️In 1996 it pioneered unique tamper-proof single & three-phase electronic energy meters in India.
➡️1st company in India to obtain various certifications like DLMS certification for Energy Meters, BIS certification for Smart Meters, etc.
➡️Current Order book is massive 19K crore –many order they have won recently
➡️Many State Electricity Boards (SEBs) have initiated the process of inviting bids for the deployment of smart meters under RDSS scheme
➡️In May 2023, the company has signed a commitment letter with United States International Development Finance Corporation (“DFC”) to obtain a Loan up to USD 49.5 million to scale up the deployment of electric smart meters.
➡️Company expects a substantial recovery in revenue from Q3FY24 onwards on back of our robust orderbook and consistent order inflow, further bolstered by the normalisation of the supply chain
➡️GIC Affiliate and Genus Power Infrastructures Limited to set up a Platform to fund Smart Metering projects
o Company signed definitive agreements with Gem View Investment Pte Ltd, an affiliate of GIC, Singapore (“GIC”) for setting up of a Platform for undertaking Advanced Metering Infrastructure Service Provider (“AMISP”) concessions
o Genus Power would be the exclusive supplier to the Platform for smart meters and associated services
➡️Largest player in India’s electricity meter industry ~27% market share in Meter Industry
~70% market share in Smart Meters
➡️Annual Production capacity of 10 mn+ meters
➡️Empanelled with 40+ different utilities across the country
➡️Only Indian company to receive BIS certification for Smart Gas Meters
➡️CMMI level 3 Company Accredited with – ISI, KEMA, SGS, STS, ZIGBEE, UL, DLMS etc., which is amongst the highest in Indian Metering Solutions Industry
➡️Big and reputed clientele
➡️In-House NABL Accredited Electronic Energy Meter Testing Laboratories
GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT
The government is planning to invest up to $21 billion till 2025 in smart grid technologies
The smart cities initiative is targeting 100+ cities in India, out of which 20 have been declared
More than 14 smart grid pilots have been launched in cities across India, to push smart solutions in Power Generation & Distribution Industry
Risks
➡️Fairly valued to bit overvalued until Earnings kick in
➡️Increase in employee cost and other expenses, as expanding workforce and enhancing systems in preparation for the execution of the substantial orderbook
➡️Significant increase in financing costs as a result of the company’s obligation to provide new bank guarantees to secure the massive order inflow
➡️Delay in execution of existing orders received by a quarter or two
➡️New order tenders getting delayed
➡️Change in policies
➡️Increase in RM costs
In case you have any questions/ queries, please feel free to reach me through Contact Form
Do spread the word among your peers, family members or anyone who can benefit from this blog and asked them to subscribe. But be selfish and take care of yourself first by subscribing before they do.
Enjoy the day and your life. Don’t forget, we are alone in this grand universe and may not get a chance to live again.
ALPHA LEARNERS – Mentorship program Jan-24
With great pleasure and best wishes from all of you, we are delighted to launch new batch of
ALPHA Mentorship Art and Science of Investing (basics to advanced)
to make you Independent in stock markets
Make your journey faster in Stock market (by 3 to 4yrs) with ALPHA LEARNERS Mentorship program
Number of batches and batch size is very very limited considering live classes
EARLY BIRD DISCOUNTS if one Enrols before 25th DEC 2023
A PROGRAM TO MAKE YOU LEARN AND EARN
This is a unique live program for 2.5years approx. with live classes for approx. 5-6 months (on weekends) and 2 years of handholding further
Where one can learn necessary
Fundamental Qualitative concepts to understand the things which create wealth in long run–like how to evaluate management, how to evaluate certain corporate actions, how to understand direction of company
Fundamental Quantitative concepts to substantiate what we have seen qualitatively, understanding ratios and numbers like margins and numbers like EBITDA, PAT, OPM, Financial Ratio, Valuation ratios PE, PB, PS, EVEBITDA, ROE, ROCE, Debt, equity and many other deep ratios to understand whether stock at right price or not
Learn about cost of capital, working capital cycle, inventory turnover, asset turnover, interest coverage, pledging(good or bad)
Why Dividend is good or bad
How long we can hold a stock or when to leave the stock
Capex, Opex and how it impacts and when it impacts
Why certain high pe stocks keep on running and low pe stocks remain down
Red flags and green flags
Necessary Technical aspect to make our entry and exit better in stocks ,oscillators and unique indicators including SMA, DMA, RSI, MACD, EMA, Trends, SL, , different time frames and some UNIQUE TECHNICAL INDICATORS NOT TAUGHT by ANYONE
Technical aspect and understanding of Price Volume action, candlestick patterns ( bullish, bearish, single, double, triple patterns)
Technical understanding of Targets from different patterns, How to look for patterns and when to look for which pattern
Resources to analyze faster to analyze more companies faster
Understand Contrarian, Cyclical, Value and Growth investing
Bucket and GRADE Framework
Business Moats understanding–how to categorize moats, what is real moat, what is fake moat
Exit Strategies in stocks
Reading Balances sheet in simple way to analyze results and issues to make quick exits or to do pyramiding after results
Reading Cash flows in simple way to understand where money is being moved in company
Reading Quarterly, half yearly, yearly results and interpreting them better
Tricks and Checklist for faster analysis of Annual Reports to help us all understand whether to deep dive or not
Conf-call understanding, Transcripts Concepts and Tricks to understand faster
Big money moves aspect to understand where money is moving
Concepts and tricks on various intricacies in stock market
Understanding about primary, secondary market
Also get a KNOWHOW on
Checklist for stocks to identify red flags faster
Checklist for deep dive into selected stocks
How to build Portfolio for Short term
How to build Portfolio for Long term
How to find Multi bagger stocks
How to avoid pitfalls in market
When to exit stocks
Free lifetime learning through a Whatsapp Community (apart from Program content) & Bonus Sessions
Join like minded people to interact with on CHARTS, Domain KNOWLEDGE, Sector Expertise etc
This is a program YOU CAN NOT AFFORD TO MISS
Other Details
Time period 2.5 Years
Starting time Jan24
Live classes on Sunday afternoon mostly
Time duration of each lecture –approx 1.5 to 2 Hrs
Time period of live classes 6 months
Each session recorded and shared with participants
Next 2 years handholding to close the GAPS in knowledge with Handholding, Quizzes, Exercises, Bonus sessions, Charts, Fundamentals and Business analysis from time to time
Have a Resolute NEW YEAR 2024
Let 2024 be the start of your journey towards INDEPENDENCE IN STOCK MARKETS
ACT NOW for your Independence
FEEDBACK By ALPHA LEARNERS
EARLY BIRD DISCOUNTS if one Enrols before 25th DEC 2023
ACT NOW for your Independence
CONTACT us
In case you have any questions/ queries, please feel free to reach me through Contact Form
Do spread the word among your peers, family members or anyone who can benefit from this blog and asked them to subscribe. But be selfish and take care of yourself first by subscribing before they do.
Enjoy the day and your life. Don’t forget, we are alone in this grand universe and may not get a chance to live again.
Insourcing : Short term trend
Protected: Positional Stocks 9-Dec-23
T+0
Most Profitable
Time to unlock
Cathode Vision
India AI systems : Long term trend
Green Ammonia
Appliances Underowned : Long term trend
Protected: Positional Stocks 2-Dec-23
Bread and Bakery : Long term trend
CBG Blending for CNG PNG
Green Vessels
Its Salmon
Writing Instruments : Medium term trend
Medical Imaging AI : New trend
DIWALI To DIWALI PICKS – 2
FCL –Fineotex Chemicals
CMP 358, Market cap ~4000cr
ROCE ~36%, ROE ~28%, ROE 3Yr 25.5 %, D/E ~0
Consistent Dividend Payout, Consistent increase in revenues, Profits over a decade
Also Read : PICK1
Business, Revenues and SHP
➡️FINEOTEX group is one of the leading manufacturers of chemicals for textiles, construction, water treatment, fertilizer, leather, and paint industry. Fineotex manufactures and provides products for Pretreatment processes, Dyeing processes, Printing processes, and Finishing processes for textile processing to customers across the globe
➡️Company focus is on two categories –Textile chemicals and Clean & Hygiene chemicals
➡️Revenue 77% domestic, 23% International
➡️Bluesign, ZDHC, Star Export House Accreditations + several ISO certifications
➡️Fineotex Chemical Limited has earned the prestigious ECO PASSPORT by OEKO-TEX® certification, the highest rating in the globally renowned audit that measures standards of sustainability
➡️Received Dun and Bradstreet ESG Badge, it showcases the impact of ESG listing and ranking on organizations, and recognize their contribution towards sustainability
➡️Presence in more than 70 countries with 100 + dealers with 470+ product categories
➡️Consistent promoter holding, Good DII participation, Big Shark Ashish Kacholia holding 2.83% stake ( built his stake in last one year)
➡️Company has strong experienced leadership team and has reputed clientele
Strengths and Triggers
🟢Capex, expansion Done in last few years–Total capacity 104000MT, Ambernath plant is fungible and has the capabilities to manufacture products for both textile chemical and cleaning and hygiene segment.
🟢The facility is equipped with modern infrastructure and amenities, enabling sustainable chemical production with advanced automation, storage, and logistics handling
🟢Emerging/Expected Favorable tailwinds with UK FTA deal under discussion, Can open doors for Indian Textile segment and the company is proxy to textile sector
🟢Working capital days, Inventory days have come down significantly
🟢Malaysia plant has Easy access to high quality raw materials in the region. Malaysian plant provides raw materials to the Indian facilities. Cost benefits due to Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with important regional markets like Vietnam, China and India
🟢Recent collaborations to expand product profile and geographical reach —
Eurodye-CTC, Belgium, to commercialize specialty chemicals for the Indian market
HealthGuard, Australia to become the exclusive global marketing and sales channel partner with joint operations from Malaysia
Setting up a state of art Research & Development center in collaboration with Sasmira Institute, one of India’s premier textile institutes
🟢Developed technical expertise to enter attractive new markets –like -Cleaning and Hygiene Chemicals Drilling Speciality Chemicals Other Speciality Chemicals
🟢Non-textile segments will drive volume and value growth going forward
🟢Team of 34 professionals for providing technical solutions to customers
🟢Technical barriers to entry and high levels of development and product customisation
🟢ICRA rating upgraded -Long Term Rating: A+ -Short Term Rating: A1+
🟢Successful acquisition and realisation of synergies with Biotex
RISKS
🔴Further Delay or non progress in UK FTA deal
🔴Textile exports remaining down or Reemergence with force by Bangladesh Textile companies
🔴Threat of imports of chemicals/dumping by China
Disclaimer — Not a buy/sell recommendation.
Purely for studying the stock idea with risks and strengths
Your Profit, Your Loss based on your conviction
Disclaimer
Protected: Premium Stocks : 26-Nov-23
Protected: Positional Stocks -26-Nov-23
H2biscus
PEM electrolyzer
Biofuel gensets
BPC market : Medium term trend
Real Estate Mogul!!
Zero based budgeting
Winner or runner up
No Aatmnirbharta in big cranes
Protected: Positional Stocks -19-Nov-23
Its all about training
AI computing chipsets
17 Qtrs ke baad
Its Scotch
Average freight train speed across India
Indian Jewellery market trends
We have 96 MASTERS
CV production India Trend
DIWALI PICKS – 1
PCBL –Philips carbon black
CMP 210, Market cap ~7900cr
Mcap/Sales < 1.5, ROCE ~17%, PE ~18.5
Business, Revenues and SHP
➡️India’s largest & world’s 7th largest Carbon Black Company with strong presence in specialty chemical
➡️Existing 4 plants combined Annual capacity of 623 KTPA & green power generation plant of 98 MW
➡️Focus on RnD in Speciality chemicals -50+ scientists & technical professionals in R&D and process technology
➡️70% revenue from domestic, 30% international
➡️65% revenue from Tyre segment –Major Tyre companies are doing capex–INR 35000 crs of investment by tyre industry in last 3 years in capacity creation & debottlenecking
➡️Presence in more than 50 countries with 100 grades of Carbon black, 65+ grades of speciality chemicals, 1100+ employees
➡️Consistent promoter holding, Good FII and DII participation
➡️Company has strong experienced leadership team + Company belongs to Renowned RPG group
Strengths and Triggers
🟢Capex, expansion ongoing -Green field project at Tamil Nadu with Annual capacity of 147 KTPA & green power generation plant of 24 MW, Specialty capacity in Mundra of 20 KTPA. Brownfield Expansion at Mundra plant, Gujarat. Total Specialty Chemical capacity after all expansions – 112 KT.
🟢Favorable tailwinds as vehicle scrappage policy, Growing demand for EV tyres, SUV tyres, Acceleration in freight movement
🟢Tyre exports witnessed healthy growth of 9% in FY23 driven by growth in passenger car , agri & construction sectors and increased acceptance for Indian tyres globally. Domestic Tyre demand is estimated to grow by 8-9 % in FY24 with growth recovery in OEM and replacement segments
🟢Tyre imports are reducing
🟢Easy access to raw materials and international customers with proximity to ports
🟢Lower logistics cost on account of well spread manufacturing facilities and proximity to customers
🟢Lower risk of business interruption with multiple manufacturing location spread across India
🟢Increasing Contribution from High Margin Specialty & Performance Chemicals Portfolio
🟢Company is also focusing on digitalization in its operations like INDUSTRY 4.0: Smart factory Solutions —
a) Smart Automation in new manufacturing unit in Chennai, Tamil Nadu to generate key analytics and dashboards, eliminate human error and improve safety.
b) Adoption and deployment of best-in-class Data Security softwares and Advanced threat protection for all end users.
c) Creating Digital Infrastructure by set up of disaster recovery data centre for critical data protection, Automated tool-based backup is scheduled and monitored for all critical Cloud Servers.
RISKS
🔴Key Raw material CBFS is imported and dependent on crude oil price
🔴Major portion of PCBL’s revenue is from sale of CB to tyre manufacturers which is cyclical business
🔴Threat of imports of carbon black or Dumping by China
Disclaimer — Not a buy/sell recommendation.
Purely for studying the stock idea with risks and strengths
Your Profit, Your Loss based on your conviction
Update in 28-Nov-23, 29-nov-23
Acquisition of ACPL at 3800cr, EBITDA of ACPL is 417Cr in FY23
JV with Kinaltek for battery applications
Happy Diwali greetings to all of you
Starting 12th Nov23
1 stock with future potential coming every alternate week (total 25 stocks till next Diwali) only on http://alpha-affairs.com
Though stocks have been chosen with certain basic criteria, but there is no guarantee of success in markets.
All 25 can fail, all 25 can become multibaggers—it depends upon Entry point, conviction to hold, timeframe, business potential, macro factors that impact business
I am just sharing what I found useful for myself
One can safely assume that I have a vested interest in stocks I share on my timeline
Hence, no queries will be entertained on buy, hold or sell, You need to Develop your own conviction
I will not be responsible for your losses or your profits None of the posts related to stocks picks should be construed as buying recommendation from my side
Annual Highway Construction trend
EV buses under China control
Cost of energy
Lock in expiry
South’s Choice : Plain Vanilla
Survivorship bias
rPET : Mega trend
IPO : India Stock Market
Power Demand YoY
OTT : Huge growth Opportunity
RCB
Plastics Moulding Industry
Chart of the month: Brent
Mega Trend : Global Travel and Tourism
Best-Inventions-2023
Income Tax filers : Mega Trend
Alpha Learners Day 28th Oct23 : Join Immediately
We will be having ALPHA LEARNERS DAY this 28th oct Saturday
Its an event designed to increase domain knowledge from different sectors and hence companies are chosen from different sectors segments
Timing is from 10:15 to 5:30pm with relevant lunch and tea breaks in between
Format–Online Zoom Meeting
Around 10 companies with thesis will be presented–We are planning to record as well
How these meets/events can be useful —One may get a lead to deep dive more into the stock presented or relevant sector
One of my latest entry SKYGOLD which is the fastest doubler came out of one such meet
Remember
Any stock shared or discussed is NOT A BUY/SELL recommendation, Treat it as a lead to increase domain knowledge
Any losses /gains arising out of that –nobody is responsible from presenter/organizer side —we are clear that we are not recommending any stock
Its just a collective effort to learn new things from people who have taken a next step–No they are not Well known names–but they have chosen the “ROAD LESS TRAVELLED* and this initiative is to support them in their journey
Schedule looks something like this–Last minute changes may be possible
Event is free for Learners in Alpha Mentorship program (who have shown interest earlier) + Any person who wants to present a stock that day with thesis
This is a unique event where people amongst us have been able to conquer their fears and took the jump towards company analysis–not an easy task –more difficult is to present —no guarantee that it can be glitch free event–
but its a start and we will definitely reach good heights in coming time
Anyone from this group or their friends/colleagues/Relatives –if they want to join — can pay a nominal fees of 750 Rs for full day to attend
Further this fees + participation makes you eligible to participate in next event as well
Drop me a mail at alphaaffairsf2f@gmail.com if interested to join the event
You will come out richer in knowledge
There are two lucky draw for audience from the presentations (Where if you answer correctly, you are eligible to win a prize)
One lucky draw each in morning session and evening session
There is a Best presentation award for participants based on audience polling
EPIC value chain
Belt treatment
Reclaim rubber : Tyre Sector : Long term trend
Loans on paytm
Protected: Positional Stocks -22-Oct-23
Mega TREND : Great Indian Wedding
Spending is going to go up in coming years–As we see that from past trend
one can find stocks related to the theme
Padoge likhoge hoge bekaar??
Very very disturbing trend!!
People dont have skills
OR
People dont want to work
OR
Automation taking away their jobs
Or
What ELSE
Protected: Premium Stocks : 20-Oct-23
High Price segment in power trading
Compliance and Consultancy Market Opportunity
Freight Corridor
Demat accounts : Mega trend
Structural tubes : Long term trend
Protected: Positional Stocks – 14-Oct-23
MNC not able to tame Indian Markets
Right first time? Unlikely
Acquisition and Targeting
India’s Space race
ALPHA SUNRISE Portfolio precisely captures this theme along with Recycling, Defense, EMS
If you want to be part of my journey of portfolio creation in emerging sunrise sectors then just drop a mail to alphaaffairsf2f@gmail.com and at a nominal yearly amount get to know ALPHA SUNRISE Entry and exits
Shuddh Videshi Romance : 100% imports
Demographic dividend
Differentials makes a difference
OSW markets
Crash in another world of lithium
Protected: Positional Stocks – 7-Oct-23
Only 2 questions
Panchamrit
China CV sales
Image sensor CAGR in last few years
Break in narrative
Footwear Market : India
Junk galore
ALPHA LEARNERS – Mentorship program Oct-23
With great pleasure and best wishes from all of you, we are delighted to launch new batch of
ALPHA Mentorship program
Art and Science of Investing (basics to advanced)
to make you Independent in stock markets
Make your journey faster in Stock market (by 3 to 4yrs) with ALPHA LEARNERS Mentorship program
Number of batches and batch size is very very limited considering live classes
A PROGRAM TO MAKE YOU LEARN AND EARN
This is a unique live program for approx. 5 months (on weekends) and 2 years of handholding further, Where one can learn necessary
Fundamental Qualitative concepts to understand the things which create wealth in long run–like how to evaluate management, how to evaluate certain corporate actions, how to understand direction of company
Fundamental Quantitative concepts to substantiate what we have seen qualitatively, understanding ratios and numbers like margins and numbers like EBITDA, PAT, OPM, Financial Ratio, Valuation ratios PE, PB, PS, EVEBITDA, ROE, ROCE, Debt, equity and many other deep ratios to understand whether stock at right price or not
Learn about cost of capital, working capital cycle, inventory turnover, asset turnover, interest coverage, pledging(good or bad)
Why Dividend is good or bad
How long we can hold a stock or when to leave the stock
Capex, Opex and how it impacts and when it impacts
Why certain high pe stocks keep on running and low pe stocks remain down
Red flags and green flags
Necessary Technical aspect to make our entry and exit better in stocks ,oscillators and unique indicators including SMA, DMA, RSI, MACD, EMA, Trends, SL, , different time frames and some UNIQUE TECHNICAL INDICATORS NOT TAUGHT by ANYONE
Technical aspect and understanding of Price Volume action, candlestick patterns ( bullish, bearish, single, double, triple patterns)
Technical understanding of Targets from different patterns, How to look for patterns and when to look for which pattern
Resources to analyze faster to analyze more companies faster
Understand Contrarian, Cyclical, Value and Growth investing
Bucket and GRADE Framework
Business Moats understanding–how to categorize moats, what is real moat, what is fake moat
Exit Strategies in stocks
Reading Balances sheet in simple way to analyze results and issues to make quick exits or to do pyramiding after results
Reading Cash flows in simple way to understand where money is being moved in company
Reading Quarterly, half yearly, yearly results and interpreting them better
Tricks and Checklist for faster analysis of Annual Reports to help us all understand whether to deep dive or not
Conf-call understanding, Transcripts Concepts and Tricks to understand faster
Big money moves aspect to understand where money is moving
Concepts and tricks on various intricacies in stock market
Understanding about primary, secondary market
Also get a KNOWHOW on
Checklist for stocks to identify red flags faster
Checklist for deep dive into selected stocks
How to build Portfolio for Short term
How to build Portfolio for Long term
How to find Multi bagger stocks
How to avoid pitfalls in market
When to exit stocks
Free lifetime learning through a Whatsapp Community (apart from Program content)
Join like minded people to interact with on CHARTS, Domain KNOWLEDGE, Sector Expertise etc
This is a program YOU CAN NOT AFFORD TO MISS
LET THIS MONTH of 2023 be the start of your journey towards INDEPENDENCE IN STOCK MARKETS
ACT NOW for your Independence
FEEDBACK By ALPHA LEARNERS
ACT NOW for your Independence
CONTACT us
In case you have any questions/ queries, please feel free to reach me through Contact Form
Do spread the word among your peers, family members or anyone who can benefit from this blog and asked them to subscribe. But be selfish and take care of yourself first by subscribing before they do.
Enjoy the day and your life. Don’t forget, we are alone in this grand universe and may not get a chance to live again.
WEEE Recycling : Need of the hour
Protected: Positional Stocks – 2-Oct-23
Hopes on Ayodhya
Time for offshore
Vibecession
Military spending
ALPHA AFFAIRS 