Summarized opinion on KPMG report on COVID-19 Potential Impact on Indian Economy

There is a 66 page report published by KPMG on the Impact on Indian economy because of COVID-19 outbreak. This article is an attempt to present a summarized opinion on the report for common people to interpret the report in a faster way. Please note that since its a summary, there could be some para’s or topics which could have been missed or not got detailed/proper attention.

For people interested in details, original article link is also provided as a reference. All the images have been taken from report itself.

Let’s find some interesting analysis from report

It very clear that UNCTAD report highlights China and India will be least exposed to recession

Unique supply, demand and market shock
Unique supply, demand and market shock

Severe Demand shock is underway across categories

Impact on global economy and U shape recovery
Impact on global economy and U shape recovery
Forecast is morphing from V to U to L shape recovery
Forecast is morphing from V to U to L shape recovery
High possibility of India GDP falling below 3 per cent
High possibility of scenario 3 –India GDP falling below 3 %

DEMAND SIDE IMPACT

Steep fall in demand expected
Steep fall in demand expected

SUPPLY SIDE IMPACT

China is largest import source for India
China is largest import source for India

China is largest import source for India and hence disruption in supply can not be ruled out

Lower oil prices not enough to mitigate cash flow problems
Lower oil prices not enough to mitigate risks
Sectoral impact on various Indian industries
Sectoral Impact on various Indian industries

Report has various parameters in terms of Low, medium and high impact on both supply and demand side and for different industries , different parameters makes it more complex to have a complete view in a single go on the impact.

To reduce the complexity, I did the normalization of all parameters. So if a industry 1 is judged by 5 parameters on supply side and 3 on demand side and industry 2 is judged by 6 parameters on supply side and 6 on demand side, i normalized to 10 parameters one each side. There are some areas where i judged the number of parameters impacting the supply and demand effect and this can be biased opinion. So reader’s prudence is required

How to read the below summary. e.g. Aviation & tourism industry.

If you see Supply side shows 3/10 and 7/10 against medium and high impact. That means 3 out of 10 parameters in supply side have medium term impact on aviation industry and 7 out of 10 parameters have high impact in supply side and likewise 10 out of 10 parameters have high impact on demand side.

So if you find that a particular industry has more parameters which have low supply side and low demand side impact then that industry could be preferred investment choice in this COVID-19 scenario e.g. Consumer, retail business in food and groceries or transport infra could have least impact. Read the report in detail for each interested section

Section 1
Section 2

Next section is more towards how the world will adapt and what the seven ways identified in which the business landscape will shift beyond COVID-19

Embracing new Normal beyond COVID-19
Embracing new Normal beyond COVID-19
Embracing new Normal beyond COVID-19
Embracing new Normal beyond COVID-19
Embracing new Normal beyond COVID-19
Embracing new Normal beyond COVID-19

In case you have any questions/ queries, please feel free to reach me through Contact Form

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Enjoy the day and your life. Don’t forget, we are alone in this grand universe and may not get a chance to live again.

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