Indian equity market is now at a point where every theory, thesis, formula and literature about stock markets, stocks and investments, has been run over by a king size bulldozer, and whatever remained has been burnt with a flamethrower.
Disclaimer – Analysis is NOT a BUY/SELL/HOLD Recommendation. It can be used for educational purposes. There can be lot of things which have been missed in analysis either due to lack of information or oversight etc.. Do your own diligence & contact your expert financial adviser before making any investment decision.
Oriental Rail Infra
Key Investment thesis –> Providing Infra to Railway sector. Govt focus and orders landing up fast to Railway vendors. Oriental rail Infra is prime contender for seats and birth for new coaches. Apart from that New wagons orders also flowing
Oriental Rail Infrastructure Limited (ORIL) (formerly know as Oriental Veneer Products Limited) is engaged in manufacturing and supply of rail products predominantly for Indian Railways(IR). It manufactures Seats and Berths, Chairs, Lavatory doors etc. for all types of passenger coaches. It also manufactures Heavy Engineering equipment’s like Railway Rolling Stock, a diverse range of products which includes Wagons, Bogie, Coupler & Draft Gears through its wholly owned subsidiary Oriental Foundry Private Limited (OFPL).
Manufacturing Facility for Silicon Foam, Seats and Berth, Rexine, Compreg Board, PU Foam used for Seats & Berths, Recron used for Seats & Berths
Only Listed player in Seats & Berths in Organised sector
RDSO Certified and preferred vendor
1000+ employee strength
This Wagon capacity has been increased to 2400 wagons in Sep2023
Preferential shares allotment and warrants issued at 169 Rs (approx 200cr raised)
Order Book and strength
Company has a strong order book of more than 1200cr
Strong promoter background
3 decade old company
Big clients
Fundamental Ratios, Cash, EBITDA, PAT
Sales and profit 7x and 10x approximately in last 9 years
ROCE and ROE >12 %
Debt to equity is okayish at ~1, Pledging is 0%
Promoter has good skin in game at ~55% shareholding and big players entered recently including Mukul Agarwal
Triggers
Macro Trends :
Amid rising demand for coal freight and an aggressive push towards diversifying its freight basket, IR is planning to buy 1,00,000 more Wagons over the next three financial years Under the National Rail Plan(NRP), Centre wants to significantly increase the national transporter’s freight numbers, along with its modal freight share to 45 per cent by 2030. As per GOI estimates, consolidated demand for freight will be over 6,300 Million Tons (MT) by 2026 and 8,220 MT by 2031 Having ferried 1,418 MT in this fiscal, the national transporter would need to account for over 3,600 MT in 2031 to meet its NRP targets.
Company has worked on
Backward integration, Capacity Expansion, High Value Products and Client Diversification
Technicals
Technical chart in 10th Aug24
Risks
Working capital intensive nature of operations
Operating Cash flows are not good. Working capital days, Cash conversion cycle, ROCE, ROE needs to improve
Strong dependency on big customer IR
Margins are fluctuating in past based on execution and delivery. Not easy to predict bad or good quarters for company business
Susceptibility of profitability to volatility in raw material prices – ORIL’s product mix mainly includes seats, berths, compreg boards wherein the major raw materials are wood, rexene, cloth, foams, recron and various other solvents. Major raw material is supplied inhouse like company manufactures rexene and foam useful in manufacturing of seats. Other raw material consumed for manufacturing of seats includes veneer, which is formed from timber and company procures timber from local market. Its profitability is susceptible to fluctuations in the prices of wood as it serves as the main raw material for manufacturing of veneers, particle boards, plywood and compreg boards. For wagons, bogies and coupler body, major raw material is steel or scrap of steel which is procured from local market whose prices are highly volatile in nature. However, the company has a price variation clause inbuilt for key raw material, i.e., steel and wheels if procured from Indian Railways, thus reducing the price volatility to that extant
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For a long time, most people agreed that if you wanted to start a tech company, the “default” place to do it was Bengaluru. It had everything that young startups wanted—a vibrant city, access to tech talent, VCs, and even great weather. For over a decade, some of the most notable startups emerged from Bengaluru. Everyone believed this was an advantage, i.e., the ecosystem made these companies stronger, resilient, and more innovative.
But of late… we aren’t so sure about that. Even though most people in Bengaluru believe that they are doing exciting, innovative work, it’s the startups from another city…
Valiant communications Disclosure –holding from below levels , one of my bets that hit 10x still a good potential for 3x-5x from these levels Target –> 50x from Valiant communications
You decide your own risk, reward
Not a recommedation to buy sell
RECENT RESULTS – Highest Sales, PAT
Key updates captured from Company presentation
Valiant had entered into agreement(s) with its business partner Tejas Networks Limited to present their joint bids before the Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation Limited (GETCO) for two different projects, wherein, Tejas has acted as a lead bidder in both the projects.
For Project #1, the GETCO has issued the Letter of Intent (LOI) to Tejas, being the lead bidder. Valiant isexpected to receive the corresponding confirmed order of exceeding 3,400 lacs from Tejas in the ongoing quarter.
For Project #2, Valiant with its business partner Tejas, are L1 bidders. This Project is to be issued under the “Make-in-India” initiative with a business opportunity for Valiant exceeding 3,200 lacs. The outcome is awaited.
Quantum-safe features in Valiant’s cyber-security products and solutions are under development and commercial role out is expected within the calendar year 2024.
The operating profit margins has been improved in the light of: Expected better product-mix; Earlier years supplies are entering in AMC phase now, resulting a top-up revenue for services; New cuƫng-edge hardware technology driven products are being offered.
VCL-NAS and Data Storage Servers: Valiant has introduced India’s first, Made in India ransomware resistant, OnSite, Off-Site and Off-Line Data Storage and NAS (Network-AƩached Storage) Servers with a current capacity of 1.2 Petabyte (i.e. 1,200 Terabytes). Valiant’s VCL-NAS is an essential component of the modern networked computing environment including data center applications. VCL-NAS comes equipped with incremental upgrades using AES 256 encryption and upgrading to Quantum-Safe technology. It allows the protection of stored data against natural disasters, man-made disasters and acts of war – including EMP (electromagnetic pulse). Off-Site VCL-NAS and Data Storage Servers are used for Disaster Recovery ensuring that critical data is still accessible and can be restored. Off-Site backups are used for Data Redundancy to provide redundancy, reducing the risk of data loss due to hardware failures, human error, or software issues on the primary server. VCL-NAS and Data Storage Servers can also be used for Geographic Diversity to restore data in geographically distant locations, overcoming the risk of natural disaster, acts of war including EMP aƩacks. Another key feature of VCL-NAS and Data Storage Servers including providing Air-Gap Security. Data stored offline, is immune to online threats such as hacking, malware, and ransomware. Grid Automation and Grid Islanding solution: Our Company has also introduced its Grid Automation and Grid Islanding solution
Copied key contents which I liked from AGM transcript.
Disclosure : I am holding it from very low levels, Not added/not sold recently
we have consolidated our existing business in satellite communication for defence applications, we are also diversifying into two different areas and the results we expect to see in two years from now in a big way.
So, and we are very confident that both these initiatives will put the company in a different orbit. From 2026 -27 onwards, we expect to see the results. And from 2027 onwards, the three years from now, there will be a quantum jump. we expect the company to establish itself as the top five companies in the country in the space of defence
First diversification that we are doing is the software defined radios. It’s a big, huge market globally. But if you come to very specific to India alone itself, it’s around $11 billion market globally. But coming to India in the Indian Defence market alone, it’s, it’s around, it’s around $300 million leaving the civilian commercial market only Indian defence market per annum. That is $300 million is per annum
we would be number two, I mean, if I’m not wrong, in that space of SDR’s with SCI compliance and that covers various spectrum like HF, VHF, UHF, L band, Satcom, SDR. There are various frequency bands and various versions of them for like portable versions, handheld versions with vehicle borne aircrafts, helicopters, shipborne submarines
C4ISR is the basic backbone of any, you know, any defence service, which includes command, control, communication, computing, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance
We are planning to complete a range of products by this year, financially and itself, but we expect to see a good revenue and all from 26, 27 onwards. By 2027, we should have, we consolidated as a serious player in that segment in India. And these products will also have possibility to expand in the global market.
second diversification is in the space sector where there the government of India has started opening up the sector very seriously and they want to see that private sector enters BLO, build, launch and operate kind of services. So in all the both upstream as downstream and midstream services in satellite space will be open to the private sector either through partnership with public sector or, government. Public private partnership or private sector alone government of India is looking at something like $50 billion in the next eight to nine years
we are well positioned to expand our presence in the space sector by getting into two areas.
One is ground station as a service like it includes satellite operation Centre, mission control Centre and also receiving the data and images from the satellites. Their station is supposed to receive the signals from satellites and then distribute that to the customers.
And the second part is the assembly, integration and testing of the satellites themselves. There up to satellite weight of say 1000 kgs max. We should be able to do it in house. So we are establishing a facility in ECT electronic city in Hyderabad. It is near airport. It’s about four acres of land. The construction is going on and we should be able to complete that facility in all respects by this year end. So there two things
Orders we have around 287 crores worth of orders on hand right now. there are a lot of other things in pipeline railways now, we are well established. We are expecting another 60 crores order, approximately, and maybe in a month or two and followed up by another tender coming up. They are coming up for I think maybe 12,000 terminals. So that will be a public tender. NSIL, we are doing, I mean, we have an order for around 27,600 or so
Five-kilowatt HF system we have already delivered and that has only been delivered to Indian Navy, government of India through bath electronics, installed and commissioned. So, there’s a good requirement in that space. And right now, A, we have the product in hand and we are ready for that. So, whenever the RFP comes, we are. That will be a big opportunity. Maybe few hundred crores.
we want to work on satellite payloads also which is again state of the art kind of development work. Subsystems for satellites. These are highly manpower intensive kind of work. So, the manpower expenses in R and D will grow a lot significantly in the next three to four years because we are investing heavily in R and D in those software, different radios and satellite subsystems right now. We have five projects sanctioned by Minister of defence government of India and five is the maximum they can give to any company. So, and we got five out of this. Two contracts are signed. One is in the final stage of contract signing. Maybe this month, June they will sign another one, maybe in June end or July. So enough. There are two major projects we have signed wherein once we complete the development, we’ll be the only vendor for those requirements. And those projects are having high potential because we’ll be the single vendor and those projects are having huge requirement from Indian army
Government of India is giving a grant for those projects, investing in that. And they are investing in their time and effort to do the trials, conduct the field trials for these projects. So earlier we have to understand the requirements, develop the product without anything, no cost, no commitment basis, go after them to conduct trials and accept that. Now it has come from them. They are given the specs, they have given the requirements, they are giving the grant and they are saying once it is completed, they will buy from us. So, it is like a phenomenal change in the outlook from the government of India. And in terms of making India and self-reliant, I think they mean business
Receivables Receivables we have, because we did 38 crores in the last quarter. I mean there is some, it appears to be more, but we have already received close to 39 crores from those 68 crores. And in that again around eleven crores is towards installation commissioning which will come over a period of time as we complete the installation of the equipment and all crores, another remaining eleven crores we should be receiving in June or July. So, there is absolutely no, as you could see, there are no bad debts at all for the company and they are, if they are there also, they are minuscule, 0.001% something like that. Because all receivables are from government of India or government of India undertakings.
IMax opportunity we may do some two and a half crores or so next year. Then following year maybe, we may even go up to ten crores, then 15 crores. But we are confident that we will reach 100 crores by 2030. So that’s not a very ambitious target because of the market here is around $11 billion and we are importing about $7 billion every year in medical equipment. That sector, which is about $7 billion, is the import itself around 60,000 crores or more they are importing. There is a huge potential there that is also expected to go to $50 billion by 2030. we are very well positioned in that because our expertise in electronics and engineering and mechanical, everything is very helpful in making world class equipment. We are not compromising on quality or anything. We are trying to build artificial intelligence into that. We want to make this equipment IOT enabled and benchmarked against the best in the world. So, there is no doubt that we will do well in image. It’s only a matter of time. So, But the break-even may happen. Maybe if not this year, next year definitely it will break even and get into cash profit. We’ll make profits in 25, 26 for sure. And after that the growth will be exponential. So, the I max would be a very, very significant
we are positioned in a place called AP MedTech zone where the world class facilities are created for complete testing and certification. It’s world class, it is recognized by WHO also. So, our facility is coming up in that 300 acre or something kind of a thing, where there is incubation centre, the test labs, certification labs, and many companies also have already started operations about four or five years back, and they’re doing extremely well. So, in that we have chosen space where two, three areas we have identified.
One is the respiratory area, like. Like ventilators and C Pap, BiPap and things like that. Then we are selected. Endoscopy is one of the areas And of course, to start with a low, low-end side, we have taken surgical staplers where it is certified. And then we, as I briefed you earlier, we got a contract for supply, 25,000 numbers per month from another OEM company. So, we’re on the right track. And then the final, we also want to, as I rightly, as I told you earlier, we want to develop something called hospital at home kind of equipment, which will be very useful for in times like Covid or for elders or for communities. So where in a budget of, say, ten lakhs, you can have everything that a hospital can provide. In an ICU, which is a small, it’s an equipment which will be carried on a cart or something like that, which will monitor all vitals. It will supply oxygen, it will have ventilator, it will have infusion pump to infuse injections and all. It will monitor all the vitals. They will be communicated to the doctor. Essential medicines will be made available there. Simple. Some small blood tests also can be done. So basically, it is like everything that you can ask for in an ICU, kind of things will be made available. Any nurse can handle that. And as the vitals are monitored remotely and doctor can be. Will receive alerts and then he can give guidance and then nurse can attend to that
are we able to develop any new products now which will help us be ahead of the competition for the next three, four years and enjoy similar margins? Dr Abburi Vidyasagar- Actually we are continuing that initiative in developing intellectual property. The fundamental focus of the company is on innovation. Always it’s an innovation driven company, though we give very lot of importance to customer service and operational excellence, which are also required to make our company profitable. But the core is innovation only even today.
we have already started working on software, different radios with SCA compliance for Indian as well as global market in defence communication. That is going to be. I mean, there will not be many companies in that anyway. Okay, I don’t say zero competition. There will be competition, but there will be limited competition. Similarly, the ground terminals I am talking about in KU band, cultivating Gaga band, which is again, very few companies will be there. I mean, the satellite terminals I am talking about, which are portable, mobile, you know, airborne, those versions which can be mounted in aircraft or a helicopter, those satellite terminals, again, very few companies will be there
Avantel AGM 2025
we have taken up five projects, 5 projects from the Ministry of Defence under the scheme of iDEX Indian Defence Challenges. So, the projects are mostly related to satellite communication. In fact, all the five projects are related to satellite communication. And the first one is sat phone based on geostationary satellite. The second one was again Convoy Management based on satellite. Both are for Indian Army. The third one is the receiver for receiving video through satellite, again for Indian Army. Port and 5th projects are for the requirements of Indian Navy, which is mostly based on Satcom on the move, the communication on the move for both land-based platforms as well as for the airborne applications. So, all five out of the five project, the 5th project contract was signed recently, but the fourth projects were signed quite some time back about six months back and the development work is going on very well
we have come for rights issue which is that near Vijayawada about an hour from the airport of Vijayawada, it’s on the highway. So that we would like to use for you know, making antennas which like HF antennas which are very huge and in terms of occupy a lot of space, 5 kilowatt HF antennas, one kilowatt HF antennas and then other types of antennas use it in military applications as well as sat com ground station antennas for say 7.3 meters, 9.3 meters, even 11 meters satellite (Not Clear) antennas can be manufactured there.
we are meeting all the requirements in terms of production as well as design, development of various products for MSS, particularly MSS mobile satellite services and UHF, SATCOM and UHF LOS radios, HFSDRs and HF one kilowatt systems and the real time training information systems, fishing transponders for boats from the Department of Fisheries through NSL.
The growth again using CAGR growth. So for example, in 2021, the sales was 77 crores and now 24-25 it is 248 crores either kind of almost it’s more than it’s about 3 times 300%. If you look at the profit, it was 15 crores in 2021 and now it is 24-25 which has come to about close to 60 crores, 59.56 crores see this is about almost four times Ok, the 400% something like. So this kind of increase you, I would like to caution you will not be there for next couple of years in 25-26 and 26-27, which it will be more stable and from 27-28 again, you can expect a steep growth. If a couple of opportunities from say 4 to 5 opportunities, 5 opportunities are there, which are likely to take us to the next level of growth to say sound 50 crores turnover supposed to be aimed to reach by 2030 to reach that kind of from say sound 50 again, 300% again over a period of four years. So that is possible from if we can convert two out of five to six opportunities that we are working on, which will get us good numbers in terms of both sales as well as the profit
l. Coming to IMAX, so as I told you in the last meeting, this medical equipment requires certification, Ok. The certification process will quite elaborate and go through and has to go through many levels of testing particularly things like those noninvasive ventilators and then you know CPAP patient monitoring systems. Those things have to go through a lot of processes that for certification. But the total money, if you to put them in the right perspective the startups with one single product also I have to remain investing at least 5 to $10 million. And all the money that we have invested here is close to $4 million, not even 4 million rather than 4 million. And if we have around 5 products in place and the certification process will be completed for all these products by September for sure. I mean some of them we got already and some of them by June this month end, some of them July end one more and August one more and September. So in the next three months we are getting all the certifications. Plus we have to build a facility with a clean room and other things. The kind of world class facility built and out of 30 crores close to 22 crores has gone for fixed assets. There’s nothing that and you can assume that eight crores have gone for product development. So basically we laid the strong foundation for IMAX to go forward and if any of the shareholders are very, very, I mean worried about this, then the promotes can take over if required. So, but thing is the medical industry, the projections are from $12 billion in 23-24, they are expected to reach $50 billion by 2030. That is the kind of growth they are expecting in IMAX
. I’ll come to the first point that and he also was asked about unsecured loans and all that CDB. There are two reasons for which the shares have been sold. One is to subscribe to the rights issue number 1. number 2 is Laxmi Foundation. I have donated quite some time back the 45,00,000 shares and obviously that donated means I want to sell the shares and invest in the trust for building the hospital, which we already have a hospital in leisure premises and we want to go for our own building for the hospital, much bigger hospital, maybe around 200 bed hospital, multi-specialty hospital. So we have to, I mean, I’m going to not stop here. I’m going to maybe donate more, another 45,00,000 shares or maybe another 45,00,000 shares, maybe another 90,00,000 shares for every next 3-4 years. So that’s and I think that’s my privilege to donate. And then once we donate, they have to be sold to be able to invest in the foundation activities. So I think that’s obvious and I hope shareholders understand that point. Regarding these loans unsecured loans because the company because suddenly the lot of projects were implemented and obviously the receivables have to come from government PSUs and where there were delays, there were delays in receivables. So instead of rushing to the bank. So whatever money I wanted to got to invest in rights, I have invested as unsecured loans here because it is the easiest route for me to fund immediately.
e SDR market is around 3000 crores every year for the last, so many last 7-8 years is buying from different services is about SDR business for military segment alone is that much so and obviously it’s not something that you can do overnight, then everybody could have done it, you know, So for Avantel also, it takes time to do as per software communication architecture, SCA 4.1 specifications and kind of stringent requirements that army and the navy are asking for, including Air Force that shows that the kind of intellectual property that is involved in development of SDRs and Avantel’s capability number one is we are already supplying HFSDRs 1 kilowatt HFSDRs is being supplied to Indian Navy and the shipyards. So our competency and capability is already proven. We have delivered. We are already demonstrated and trials have completed for UHF SDR and UHF sat com SDR to Indian Navy in trials on ships. So there also it’s not on the board drawing board. It’s proven. And 3rd, as you can see, we are selected by Deal Dehradun as against competition from Bell L&T and other major players. So we are short, we became L1 and we are technically qualified. So and those radios are meant for Indian Air Force, Ok, so airborne SDRS for which we have been we got the received the contract also they gave us two years, but I am sure we will develop much before that. Ok. That’s a four channel radio now. Right now they are being imported. This is an import. Two companies were there and we are L1 and some company L2 both of us shared the order, other one is Coral yeah. So that that’s about the SDR capability and development and the big numbers. Defence Services in the next maybe one year. So we are participated in the RFI and if definitely qualification criteria we have to see how much turnover and all that individually or through conversion we will bid for that. That’s big number. So in that the product that is required for that is in am advanced stage and definitely we will meet the requirements. We have given the complaints for all the requirements and it’s that development is going on now, right now at ECT facility in Hyderabad, Ok, when that is 12,000, you can, I don’t know it will be 3000 crores or by 10,000 crores. It depends upon the kind of estimate they have for this product. But definitely I’m sure it will be around maybe 3000 crores or even more, Ok. So that’s the kind of segment we are positioning ourselves and there are entry barriers. There is not something that everybody can by investing money they can develop the product unless the import and obviously imported the equipment are at least 100% more expensive than what is developed by Bharat Electronics. Not even a lender in Bharat Electronics is giving it a competitive price when compared to imports. Dr. Ajit may correct me if I’m wrong. So this is about the SDR part about win profile radar. Yes, we have the technology. We already delivered sharp and two more tenders are coming. One tender is expected this year. One tender is already come. We have already participated in the bid and it may be opened anytime, maybe in the next couple of months. And the next one, the RFP for us may come in the next 2-3 months and we are very confident that we will be there, one for Indian Air Force, One for ISTRAC
Somebody’s talking about 100 crores less or something kind of order. This 100 plus crores of orders will come this year itself and other things like ground stations and all that. One good news is we have a good collaboration with Safran France, the one of the best companies in France, in aerospace, not only in France, in the Europe itself and maybe in the world. So they are, we are collaborating with them for all the ground station 360° coverage, full motion antennas for satellite data reception,
we have already tied up with one company in Med Tech industry for Health Kiosk and we will be doing the contract manufacturing for them. And also we can also sell directly also. It is a very good product. It’s called help pod. It’s like an ATM for healthcare. There are many, many parameters automatically measured. Maybe it’ll take 15 minutes maximum, Max that is otherwise all together, actual measurement time is 5 minutes. So that health part like an ATM Kiosk and we have some requirements. It can be proliferated both. In fact, there’s a potential in military also for that along with our home care product which can be moved into ambulances, army vehicles, trucks and health centers everywhere. It can be fixed along with the H pod. H pod and our health home care unit together. It will be like a mini hospital during diagnostics and service. So both are very good products and the home care product when it comes, it integrates multiple technology. It will have x-ray, ultrasound scan, patient monitor, ventilator. It will have everything that you can ask for to like in whatever is there for the best possible treatment in hospital. So that’s our product and HPOD is the product from Satyendra Goyal who is from Chicago, USA.
They have developed it and they want us to partner. We have signed an MOU also and that is another great opportunity. And in Imax when, when we when we start producing, after the certificate get, start get going, the growth rates will not be 10-15%, but they could be 40-50% year on year or even more 100% or something like that. So once it starts with some 4-5 crores this year, afterwards it could be 30 crores, then it could be 60 to 75 and then hundred. That’s the kind of potential that is there in that area in highlights
Disclaimer – Analysis is NOT a BUY/SELL/HOLD Recommendation. It can be used for educational purposes. There can be lot of things which have been missed in analysis either due to lack of information or oversight etc.. Do your own diligence & contact your expert financial adviser before making any investment decision.
Jaykay Enterprises
Key Investment thesis –> Defense and aerospace sector venture in precision manufacturing with big customerssupported by designing, development, manufacturing, and testing of advanced composite engineering products made or composed of fibre glass, glass mat, plastic, resins etc.with applications in defence/aerospace/ logistics & electrical industries. Company also developing good capabilities in Additive manufacturing and software systems to support above venture
Jaykay Enterprises Limited (JKE), part of J K Organisation and part of the 139 years old diversified JK conglomerate. JKE initially engaged in the business of manufacturing nylon and acrylic fibers and later went into Registrar and Share Transfer Agent activities.
Presently, the Company has diversified itself into Additive Manufacturing systems,Proto typing, powder metallurgy, large scale Digital manufacturing, Reverse Engineering, Plant modelling, In the area of defense & Aerospace we focus on areas of engineering products across various industry verticals, software designing and development, manufacturing of parts and accessories used in defence and aerospace sector, our work includes composite applications, Under water mines ,machining for aerospace sector.
Product segments
The Company has consolidated its business focus into specific dedicated opportunities. a) Defence & Aerospace; b) Digital Manufacturing & Advanced Systems c) Software &Services d) Real Estate & Hospitality. The Company is operating business of manufacturing of precision turned components and all type of engineering goods for the defence, aerospace and other allied industries including Manufacturing,trade and deal in all kinds of products related to Defence and Aerospace and Additive manufacturing and Technical Consultancy Services, 3D Scanning,Reverse engineering ,Plant Modelling, design, develop and market software products for 3D and activities through its subsidiaries, Joint Venture, partnerships and associates.
Management Pedigree
Mr. Abhishek Singhania is the Promoter, Chairman & Managing Director of Jaykay Enterprises Limited and scion of one of the best-known business families of India. He is the cofounder & has served as Managing Director of JK Technosoft Ltd (‘JKT’) and leads the company’s global operations together with the Board &Management Team. He has invaluable experience within JK Organization companies, handling various aspects of J K businesses, managing business units and operations as well as spearheading successful national and international expansion programs. He has rich experience in the manufacturing & IT services industry and multi-dimensional expertise in basic & core sector industries such as – textiles, synthetic fibres, cement and chemical processing, both in continuous as well as discrete manufacturing, Mr. Singhania has deep insights in Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC), Project Management, Strategic Planning, Business Development, Thought Leadership. Mr. Singhania spearhead in Carving new business opportunities and managing strategic investments in Defence & Aerospace, Digital Manufacturing (3D & Processing), Digital Transformation through acquisitions. He is an alumnus of IMD Business School.
SWOT
Fundamental Ratios, Cash, EBITDA, PAT
Sales and profit catching up in last 2 years
ROCE and ROE <10 %
Debt to equity is under control 0.35, Pledging is 0%
Promoter has good skin in game at ~56% shareholding and stake is increasing while Public stake is decreasing
Triggers
Macro Trends :
INDUSTRY OUTLOOK Defense & Aerospace Sector outlook is very positive owing to huge requirements from the domestic market. The A&D market in India is estimated to reach around US$ 70 bilion by 2030. With a focus on indigenization by GOI the sourcing from within the country will increase many fold resulting in great opportunities for companies in this sector. The additive manufacturing market in India is increasing slowly but surely. The GOI has already come up with a policy. The early entrants will have an advantage over others. The application of this technology globally has entrenched Defense & Aerospace, Health care and oil & Gas Sector. Digital manufacturing will lead the global manufacturing sector in a decades time
Joint Ventures And subsidiaries
JKE had entered into a strategic partnership with the global leaders in 3D Metal design and printing market. JKE had signed a Joint Venture and Shareholders Agreement with M/s Additive 3D Pte Ltd(A3D) an affiliate to M/s EOS Singapore Pte Ltd and consequent upon which a JointVenture (JV) company had been incorporated in the name of M/s Neumesh Labs Private Limited (‘Neumesh’) on 01st January, 2021, with shareholding of JKE and A3d respectively is 70% and 30% in said JV Company, inter alia, in the business of the 3D printing technology in India.
Neumesh Labs Private Limited
Neumesh Labs Private Limited (“Neumesh”) has established a Centre of Excellence (COE) in Bengaluru, the COE has state of the art EOS Software, Machines & Practices of cutting-edge 3D technology. Further Neumesh has developed a 3D printer JKPrint500, which was unveiled in IMTEX 23 Fair in Bengaluru. The product has received enthusiastic market response. Neumesh is also developing a lower price 3D printer which will be targeted at the mass market.
Neumesh, has also started its AM labs business. This is in line with various State Governments opening COE across engineering colleges and ITIs’. GOI in its 2023 budget announcement stated its intentions to establish COE’s across the country. Considering, huge numbers of COE’s that will be established, the demand for high quality polymer printers for training purposes will be high. Therefore, Jaykay Enterprises Limited along with its eco system partners have indigenously developed a polymer printer JK Print 300 and JKPM3 series, a Powder Management System which was unveiled in IMTEX 23 Fair in Bengaluru. The initial customer response has been encouraging. The JK Print 300 Printer is suitable for usage in prototyping, consumer goods, Automobile, and architecture for low volume production. The machine is ideal for usage in low volume production and training of students and technicians. The JK PM3 Powder Management System will optimize productivity and economics keeping in mind highest quality standards of parts produced by 3D metal printers. Neumesh, is working in tandem with the Governments Make in India program. Neumesh has started working on IAF prototyping projects and is looking closely at the MEA Oil & Gas market.
JK Defence & Aerospace Limited (“JK Defence”) and Allen Reinforced Plastics Private Limited (Allen)
JK Defence & Aerospace Limited (“JK Defence”) has acquired the 76.41% equity stake in Allen Reinforced Plastics Private Limited (Allen) which is engaged in the business of designing, development, manufacturing, and testing of advanced composite engineering products made or composed of fibre glass, glass mat, plastic, resins etc. applications in defence/aerospace/ logistics & electrical industries. Allen indigenously develops and supplies critical components to key defence projects in the country, such as BrahMos, Pinaka, SMILE, Akash missiles etc. to defence undertakings such as DRDO, ISRO, OFB, BHEL, BDL among others.
JK Defence stake in the step-down subsidiary i.e. Allen will increase from 76.41% to 92.92% after recent aquisition of shares through Rights issues
JK Defence & Aerospace Limited, Wholly Owned Subsidiary (“JKDAL”) of Jaykay Enterprises Limited, has been accorded an approval from the Office of the Commissioner for the Industrial Development and Director of Industries and Commerce, Government of Karnataka w.r.t. the investment proposal of JKDAL to establish a unit for manufacture of “Precision Turned Components and all types of Engineering Goods for the Defence, Aerospace and other Allied Industries including assembling in all kinds of products of Defence and Aerospace Equipments”. The approval includes allotment of 5 acres of land from KIADB at Devanahalli General Industrial Area (ITIR), Bangalore Rural District and necessary permission for water and power connections and associated NOC(s) from state industry authority. The unit will be eligible for incentives and concession as per applicable policy of the State.
Jaykay Enterprises Limited (“the Company”) has acquired 99% stake in Bangalore based partnership firm M/s. Silvergrey Engineers (SGE) inter-alia engaged in manufacturing and supply of parts and accessories to defence equipment manufacturing industry, catering to Customers including HAL, BEL, ISRO, Gas Turbine Research Establishment, Aeronautical Development Agency, Tata Advance Systems amongst others. SGE presently has manufacturing facilities located at Bengaluru
Representative image of 3D printers, digital manufacturing(not actual)
JK Digital & Advance Systems Private Limited
Incorporated on July 27, 2023, to provide digital and technical consultancy services, 3D scanning, and software engineering lab services. It aims to design, develop, and market software products for 3D applications and various industries.
Current Event
Company Share price has been adjusted for upcoming rights issue at 25Rs on 19th July24
Quarterly results have shown improvement –7th Aug24
12 acre Land parcel applied in lucknow
Details of recent triggers
Neumesh Labs Private Limited (Material Subsidiary) signs Memorandum of Understanding (“MoU”) with Agnikul Cosmos Private Limited Neumesh Labs Private Limited, material subsidiary of the company entered into a MoU with Agnikul Cosmos Private Limited, a Chennai headquartered Space-tech start-up Company on August 9, 2023. The MoU includes supply and maintenance of Metal Printer, Part Printing and Supply of Metal Powder. • Joint Venture with Phillips Machine Tools India Private Limited The Company had entered into a Joint Venture with Phillips Machine Tools India Private Limited, a subsidiary of Phillips Corporation, USA, to form and constitute a Limited Liability Partnership (LLP) under the name and style of JK Phillips LLP pursuant to the Limited Liability Partnership Agreement dated December 20, 2023. The LLP has been formed on December 28, 2023 to carry out the business of trading and distribution of Advance systems which includes CNC machines, lathes, hydraulic press, 3D printers, moulding machines and accessories originally produced by Phillips and other manufacturing/ trading activities including after-sales services. • Tripartite Agreement to manufacture Medical Implants executed between JK Digital & Advanced Systems Private Limited, EOS Electro Optical Systems India Private Limited and Meril Innovations Private Limited During the year, JK Digital & Advanced Systems Private Limited a WoS of the Company had completed the execution of a Tripartite Manufacturing Agreement on January 19, 2024 with Meril Innovations Private Limited, Gujarat (Meril Life Sciences), a leading MedTech Solutions Company, for production of Medical Devices/Implants through 3D Printing along with its technology Partner EOS, Chennai a WoS of EOS GmBH of Germany. The Agreement provides for JK Digital to Install, operate specified 3D Printers assisted by EOS, for manufacturing of Orthopedic Implants at Meril Life Sciences premises in Gujarat. • Merger of Business of Silvergrey Engineers into the Company In line with the approval of Board of Directors of the Company accorded on May 29, 2023 the Company had executed Dissolution cum Retirement Deed with Ujala Merchants and Traders Limited (UMTL) dated February 3, 2024, where in UMTL agreed to retire from the from the partnership of Silvergrey Engineers w.e.f. January 31, 2024, resulting the Company acquired the balance 1% stake in Silvergrey Engineers, pursuant to which the Company, will carry on the business of manufacturing of precision turned components and all type of engineering goods for the defence, aerospace and other allied industries as a division/segment of the Company. • Approval of Land Parcel to JK Defence & Aerospace Limited (WoS) in Bangalore Rural District JK Defence & Aerospace Limited WoS of the Company, had been accorded an approval from the Office of the Commissioner for the Industrial Development and Director of Industries and Commerce, Government of Karnataka on March 13, 2024 w.r.t. the investment proposal to establish a unit for manufacture of “Precision Turned Components and all types of Engineering Goods for the Defence, Aerospace and other Allied Industries including assembling in all kinds of products of Defence and Aerospace Equipments’’
The approval includes allotment of 5 acres of land from KIADB at Devanahalli General Industrial Area (ITIR), Bangalore Rural District and necessary permission for water and power connections and associated NOC(s) from state industry authority. The unit will be eligible for incentives and concession as per applicable policy of the State
Opportunity Size
Recently India has made 3D printed Semi cryogenic engine
Additive manufacturing expected to grow at more than 20% CAGR and coupled with defense and aerospace sector growth, oppportunity seems big enough
Technicals
Technical chart in 27 Jul24 (after Rights issue adjustment)
Technicals on 6-Jul-24 –ALD presentation
Technicals on 18-Jun-24
Risks
Operating Cash flows are not good. Working capital days, Cash conversion cycle, ROCE, ROE not upto the mark –outcome is high valuation which is typical characteristics for a turnaround company–Things look really bad before they turn decent, and then good and then turn very good.
Chances of turning very good?? We need to see –1 out of 100 companies turnaround succuessfully—rest of the companies bites the dust
Other income is high and skewing PAT
New business division of defense dont take off as anticipated
Dependency on limited customers for new contracts and
Competition from domestic and foreign players
There are related party loans to subsidiaries which may be susceptible to waivers
Disclaimer – Analysis is NOT a BUY/SELL/HOLD Recommendation. It can be used for educational purposes. There can be lot of things which have been missed in analysis either due to lack of information or oversight etc.. Do your own diligence & contact your expert financial adviser before making any investment decision.
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Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services
Key Investment thesis –> Differentiated SaaS-based fintech platform with Strong network effect offering Comprehensive suite of products for a large & growing addressable market. Company has amazing cross selling and Up-selling opportunities across domains.
Zaggle builds financial solutions and products to manage the business expenses of corporates, SMEs, & Startups through automated and innovative workflows. Headquartered at Hyderabad, it is at an intersection of of SaaS (Software as a service) and Fintech. With 273+ employees, the company has 50 Mn+ co-branded prepaid cards.
Products Zaggle Zoyer: accounts management services Zaggle Save: Help employees save tax with Save’s flexible employee benefit plans Zaggle Propel: all-in-one solution for employee rewards, and channel partner incentives.
Stats in accounts/users and Revenue streams
Share in Prepaid Cards market –16%+, Transaction volume wise ~13%
Strength of company
#1 issuer of prepaid cards
Multilingual interface
In-house developed technology with strong network effect
Customizable products
Diversified customer relationships across sectors along with preferred banking and merchant partnerships
Low churn rate of customer (<2%), long term relationships
Seasoned management team and board
Awards
Company has received an award for “Best Spend Management System“ and “Best Cards Initiative for Zaggle ZatiX“ at 11th Edition Payments Industry Awards by KamiKaze B2B.
Company has received an award for “FinTech Brand of the Year“ at 4th Edition Festival of FinTech Conclave Awards 2024 in association with BW Businessworld.
Company has received an award for “Pride of Telangana “ Achiever” Start up Category 2024” by Round Table India and Ratnadeep.
Company has received an award for “Excellence in Innovation Business Spend Management Software India 2023” in the Global Banking and Finance Review Awards 2023.
Fundamental Ratios, Cash, EBITDA, PAT
Amazing Sales and Profit growth of 11x in 5 Years
ROCE and ROE close to 15%
Debt to equity is under control and close to Nil
Pledging is 0%, Promoter has good skin in game at ~44% shareholding
Though FII, DII decreased stake in last 2 qtrs but still stake held by FII, DII + HNI is big, Public holding only ~20% stake . Big Shark Ashish Kacholia has increased stake over few quarters towards 4%+ shareholding
Triggers
Macro Trends :
Moving towards Digital payments ; Increasing scope of Prepaid cards ; New companies coming up
PREPAID CARDS Growth till 2027 expected to be in range of 30-40% CAGR
Management Guidance and commentary
We doubled our revenue over the last 3 years and are poised to double our revenue over the next 2 years through organic growth. Our expectation of revenue growth for this fiscal year is to the tune of 45%-55%. We are focused on garnering more market share and making significant investments in technology, specifically building deeper AI capabilities to cater to the massive demand for Spend management solutions. We intend to pursue inorganic growth opportunities through mergers and acquisitions. Additionally, we plan to expand geographically into the US markets as part of our growth strategy.
New Vertical
In Q1FY24, Zaggle introduced corporate credit cards and vendor management platform – Zoyer.
Launch of credit cards as a product in FY24 . The monthly volume of transactions for credit cards exceeded the monthly volume of transactions for prepaid card
Zaggle Zatix – our analytics platform launched this FY & offered by Banks as bundled solution of Corporate Credit Cards + SaaS.
New contracts in Last 1 year
In Q1FY24, company entered into contract with BOB Financial Solutions Limited for implementing commercial card Onboarding & value-added services platform and launch of the Zaggle Yes Bank Corporate Credit Card, powered by Zaggle Zatix – a spend analytics platform that allows corporates to streamline business and employee expenses, budget better and negotiate favorable supplier terms.
Zaggle Save (Expense Management platform & Employee benefits)
Employees of Hero Motocorp Limited.
Lifestyle International Private Limited
Quess corp limited
Bennett, Coleman & Co. Ltd.
ARCADIS CONSULTING INDIA PRIVATE LIMITED
Wipro Limited
Benetton India Pvt. Ltd.
Emcure Pharmaceuticals Limited
Europ Assistance India Pvt. Ltd.
Axis bank limited
Expleo Solutions Limited
Yokohama India Private Limited
Eversub India Private Limited (Subway)
Contract with Torrent gas for 2 years , approx 200cr business for Implementing Close Loop Fleet Program
Agreements with ecosystemplayers in varied domains like Domestic card, corporate cards, forex cards, Travel, Cross border payments
Agreement with VISA -In Oct,23, company has entered into a growth agreement with VISA. This alliance is in support of the issuance of Forex CoBrand Cards. Visa will pay the launch bonus for supporting the launch of Forex Cobrand Cards. and will also pay incentives on Forex transactions basis spend commitments. Zaggle can leverage existing Corporate base to sell forex cards to employees of the Corporate client, and it can be tightly coupled with Zaggle expense management solution. The deal size is ~$20 Mn for next 5 years.
Company has entered into an agreement with Skydo Technologies Private Limited. This is to enable facilatate cross border payments for Zaggle corporate customers
Zaggle is contracted to provide services to Bank whereby Zaggle’s accounts payable software & expense management software and the Axis bank Corporate Credit Cards are bundled and jointly offered to Zaggle corporate customers to drive card spends & greater usage of the software
Zaggle & EaseMyTrip will leverage its Existing Corporate base to sell Integrated Travel & Expense Management Solutions to Corporate Clients.
Zaggle & Riya Travel will leverage its Existing & New Corporate base to sell Integrated Travel & Expense Management Solutions to Corporate Clients.
Zaggle is contracted to be a Co-brand partner with Nishi Forex who is an Authorised Dealer II for forex card to carry out activities such as Sales and Distribution, Marketing and Campaigning bundled with Zaggle expense management to drive card spends & greater usage of the software. Subject to RBI approval the product launch will be done in due course.
Strategic alliances and partnerships with PSU
Opportunity Size
Zaggle Propel itself Can hit potentially 3000cr in revenue with overall revenue may hit 5000cr by 2030. Net profit margin may remain between 4-7%. Company may see profits of 250-350cr if opportunity size is grabbed. With an Eps of 19-25 and PE of 40-60 –Future Price Range oscillates between estimated 750-1500. Getting such a business at 100-150 Rs price point could be super deal (dont know if we get that price)
Peer analysis
Technicals on 6-Jul-24
Risks
Operating Cash flows are not good. That needs to be monitored closely
Working capital days, Cash conversion cycle is also expanding
Business is heavily titlted towards H2 of FY
Other income will go down once cash from IPO is Utilised
Lot of investment is being done in Zoyer for product enhancement and building of Zatix, an analytics platform. If products fails to takeoff, then a good amount will be written off from assets
Increased Regulatory Compliance poses many risks for Fintech companies
High valuations in short term is another risk though runway seems long for company growth
Disclaimer – Analysis is NOT a BUY/SELL/HOLD Recommendation. It can be used for educational purposes. There can be lot of things which have been missed in analysis either due to lack of information or oversight etc.. Do your own diligence & contact your expert financial adviser before making any investment decision.
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Allied Digital Services (ADSL)
Key Investment thesis –> Smart city contracts and infrastructure solutions
ADSL global IT Consulting and Services provider and Systems integrator offering infrastructure solutions and services to clients across 70 countries. It designs, develops, and deploys digital solutions and delivers end-to-end IT infrastructure services including, End user IT Support, IT asset life cycle, enterprise applications and integrated solutions
CMMi Level 3, SOC2 certified, ISO 9001, 27001 & 20000 – Highest standard for IT Service Management Tools
Customers, Global Presence and RevenueMix
Increasing clients. Deals from big clients
Fundamental Ratios, Cash, EBITDA, PAT
Stable Ebitda, Pat margins. Debt to Equity under control. ROCE is on uptrend in medium term
Working capital days and cash conversion cycle have been improving
ADSL when i first published the report
ADSL NOW
Triggers
Securing new projects of Smart city
Securing of prestigious contracts, exemplified by projects like the Ayodhya Smart City and Taloja Smart City.
In February 2024, ADSL received a Letter of Intent for the Taloja Smart Industrial City Solution contract in Navi Mumbai. This groundbreaking initiative will unfold over an 18- month implementation phase, followed by a 60-month Operations and Maintenance period. The project’s scope involves establishing an Integrated Command & Control Centre (ICCC) at both the Corporation’s Head office and the Industrial Township. The ICCC software will seamlessly integrate with a Cloud-based Data Center/Disaster Recovery system. Furthermore, the project encompasses the deployment of a cutting edge CCTV-based Surveillance System to bolster security and monitoring capabilities. In January 2024, was selected as a Master System Integrator (MSI) for the Integration of CCTV Surveillance with Existing ITMS Control Room for the Ayodhya Smart City Project. This project entails the establishment of a multi-location CCTV surveillance system. The capital expenditure (CAPEX) and implementation phase is anticipated to last three months, followed by a five-year operational and maintenance (O&M) phase.
Completed 12 smart city projects with 2 new wins.
Expecting an opportunity size of Rs. 50,000 crore in the smart city projects in the next 5 years.
Seeing traction in the smart city space with upcoming tenders.
Future Outlook,Targeting Acquisitions and exploring fields like
Eyeing opportunities in Cybersecurity and Cloud arena for potential acquisitions.
Focused on improving margins in O&M contracts and government projects.
Expecting better traction in IT business with growing interest in European and APAC markets.
Revenue Plan
Plans to reach INR1,000 crores in revenue over the next 2-3 years with a focus on improving margins
Order book outstanding at Rs. 1,600 crore, with execution period of around three years (Nov23)
Digital Desk (formerly ADiTaaS):
Rebranded to ‘Digital Desk’ with enhanced features in AI, conversational AI, and generative AI.
Seeing traction with 100+ customers globally.
Leadership Augmentation
Allied Digital has added Mr. Ramanan Ramanathan as “Global Head Strategy – Growth, Innovation, Partnerships” to its Senior Leadership Team. Mr. Ramanathan, a seasoned strategist and growth consultant, has advised global entities and served as the Mission Director of the Atal Innovation Mission, where he established over 10,000 Tinkering Labs and 75 incubators.
In his new role, he will assist the company in its expansion by identifying new market opportunities, fostering innovation, and establishing strategic partnerships. Additionally, he will identify and evaluate potential partners to enhance business capabilities and achieve strategic objectives.
With a distinguished career at TCS and CMC Limited, he continues to shape innovation, entrepreneurship, and sustainable development across various sectors.
8th October 24
Allied Digital awarded Pune Safe City (FY 2024) Project for Total Contract Value of Rs. 430+ Crore
Key project highlights include: Comprehensive surveillance: Track 1 of the project shall cover O&M of the existing cameras for a period of 6 years and Track 2 shall cover Implementation of new infrastructure over 12 months followed by 5 years of O&M.
Advanced technology: The project will feature advanced Artificial Intelligence-enabled video analytics, an Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) system, Vehicle Over speed Detection System (VDS) a Facial Recognition System (FRS), Drones, and Mobile surveillance vans to ensure robust security and monitoring.
Upgraded infrastructure: The Command-and-Control Center at the Commissioner of Police office and supporting Data Center will be upgraded with implementation of additional capacity and installation of advanced software leading to improved efficiency and 24×7 real time monitoring. Additional viewing facilities will be established at various police stations and key government offices
Risks
Concentration of revenue from top clients
Working capital intensive nature of operations
Highly competitive nature of IT industry
Technicalchart
on 17-Oct 24
on 29-Jun-24
Disclaimer – Analysis is NOT a BUY/SELL/HOLD Recommendation. It can be used for educational purposes. There can be lot of things which have been missed in analysis either due to lack of information or oversight etc.. Do your own diligence & contact your expert financial adviser before making any investment decision.
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Disclaimer – Analysis is NOT a BUY/SELL/HOLD Recommendation. It can be used for educational purposes. There can be lot of things which have been missed in analysis either due to lack of information or oversight etc.. Do your own diligence & contact your expert financial adviser before making any investment decision.
Ceinsys Tech
Business
Ceinsys Tech Ltd. is engaged in providing value added Solutions for various segments into SMART CITY solutions and Software under the ITES business segment and is primarily dealing in providing Geospatial, Enterprise & Engineering Services and software products. The Geospatial engineering services and Enterprise solutions offerings encompass various aspects of geospatial intelligence, including Data Creation, Data Analytics, Decision Support Systems (DSS), Enterprise Web Solutions, and Dashboards.
Its services include GIS, Remote Sensing, LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging), Photogrammetry, Energy System and solutions, Engineering Design Services, Surveys and Customized Application Development.
The Manufacturing Solutions span the entire product development process – covering both the product engineering activities and industrial automation solutions for various verticals such as two / three-wheelers, passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and off-highway equipment.
In the FY22 Ceinsys, strategically expanded into mobility sector by acquiring Allygrow Technologies, a specialized engineering service provider with a strong international presence. This acquisition allowed Ceinsys to enhance its capabilities into manufacturing technology solutions covering the entire product development process and industrial automation for diverse sectors such as two and three wheelers, passenger cars, commercial vehicles and off highway equipment.
Its a Pure-Play GIS and MF Services Company
Employee strength –1000+ and 200+ Customers (40% business from Repeat Customers}
CTL had two direct subsidiaries ADCC Infocom Private Limited (involved in activities like software engineering, software development, business computing, data communication and networking, image processing and remote sensing etc ) and ATPL (specialised in manufacturing engineering services) and 5 step down subsidiaries i.e. Allygrow Technologies B.V, Technology Associates Inc., Allygrow Engineering Services Pvt Ltd, Allygrow Technologies, GmbH and Allygrow Technologies Ltd., UK
Geospatial Overview
Clients in Geospatial
Manufacturing Solutions overview
Customers, Global Presence and RevenueMix
The company boasts a marquee list of customers ranging from large corporates, OEMS, asset management companies and government bodies in the Geospatial and Manufacturing sectors, globally
It has a global presence with offices in India, the United States, United Kingdom and Germany
Applications
Smart city solutions
Spatial Data Infra
Disaster Management
Fundamental Ratios, Cash, EBITDA, PAT
Debt to equity is under control < Almost Nil
ROCE>20, ROE> 15
Pledge 14.6%
Good Sales and Net Profit Growth
Fluctuating OPM, Good NPM, Good Cash flow from operations
Triggers
Expansions and Acquisitions for future growth
ATPL has a track record of around 8 years and is a technology driven engineering service company and has its presence in US, Europe and India and specializes in Product design and Robotics automation. The company derives majority of its revenue from international market. With acquisition of ATPL, CTL is likely to derive benefits from the transaction by leveraging ATPL’s overseas network and expand its geographical presence.
The company is leveraging on India’s projected geospatial market growth which is expected to grow at CAGR of 13.5% by 2025
New Vertical
The company is also into software product development, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML) and Embedded Electronics space through a new vertical formation which focuses on product development activities related to Metaverse, EdTech, Gaming and Mobility.
Order inflows
Order book 710cr in March24
Current order book 750cr on 30th Jun24. ~550 crore is towards the geospatial and engineering services, and around +200 crore is towards the technology related solutions services. Bidding done for 200 crore of which there are 70% of the tender pipeline we are already L1
Targeting Acquisitions and exploring fields like
Acquisition of Ally Grow Technologies facilitates entry into the mobility services sector, capitalizing on the convergence of GIS and autonomous driving technologies
Establishment of a new vertical MEG-Next which focuses on innovative product development activities related to Metaverse, EdTech, Gaming and Mobility.
Further acquisitions being planned in the Geospatial, Manufacturing and Technology domains
Aquired VTS in Jul24
Smart Water Management
The company is focused on capitalizing on substantial funding opportunities provided by government initiatives such as National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP), Jal Jeevan Mission, and Namami Gange program, with a proposed budget of approximately USD 15 Billion for water-related projects
Focused on tapping the growth avenues in smart water management and renewable energy sectors, as India’s aims to add over 340 GW of renewable capacity by 2030
Tapping Manufcaturing and EV mobility growth
Rapid expansion in EV ecosystem to support Manufacturing business growth
Company is all set to seize opportunities in the growing EV mobility market, with global ER&D spending in the automotive sector accounting for USD 125-160 billion which is growing at a CAGR of 10.6%.
Risks
Lumpy nature of Orders –Orders come in bulk and so are the payments.
The order book of CTL remain concentrated as top ten orders accounts for 75%, there-by exposing the company to concentration risk. Also, the customer base of CTL is concentrated as around 55% of Income is derived from top ten customers.
Margins Volatility is high. OPM is fluctuating a lot across years
High Number of payable days
Technicals on 15-Jun-24
Disclaimer – Analysis is NOT a BUY/SELL/HOLD Recommendation. It can be used for educational purposes. There can be lot of things which have been missed in analysis either due to lack of information or oversight etc.. Do your own diligence & contact your expert financial adviser before making any investment decision.
In case you have any questions/ queries, please feel free to reach me through Contact Form
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Disclaimer – Analysis is NOT a BUY/SELL/HOLD Recommendation. It can be used for educational purposes. There can be lot of things which have been missed in analysis either due to lack of information or oversight etc.. Do your own diligence & contact your expert financial adviser before making any investment decision.
Astra Microwave
Business
Astra Microwave Products Limited (Astra) was incorporated in 1991 by a team of distinguished scientists with experience in RF/Microwave/Digital Electronics and management of projects with high technology content. Astra Microwave Products Limited, engaged in the business of design, development and manufacture of RF and Microwave Components, sub-systems and systems used in defense, space, meteorology and telecommunication
With over 30 years of experience in microwave radio frequency (RF) applications, AMPL has moved up the value chain from sub-systems to high value-added systems
Astra has 3 Automatic assembly lines for PCBA assembly, 5 class 10K cleanrooms, functional test infrastructure that extends from 30MHz up to 40GHz, in-house Environment test facilities including EMI/EMC facility and a first for any Indian Private Industry – Near Field Antenna test and measurement range.
In fiscal 2014, AMPL floated the 100% owned BEPL as a captive supplier of raw material for overseas orders. In fiscal 2015, AMPL floated the 100% owned ASPL in Singapore, as a supplier of MMIC products for semi-conductors. In fiscal 2019, AMPL set up a joint venture, Astra Rafael Comsys Pvt Ltd, with Rafael Advanced Defence Systems for production of communication systems and sub-systems for defence.
Product Portfolio The company’s product portfolio spans across Defense, Space, Meteorology, Homeland Security and Systems Vertical
Has a diverse range of microwave products like filters, transmitters, receivers, antennas etc.
Manufacturing facilities
5 facilities in Hyderabad, Continuous investment in World Class Infrastructure for Assembly, Functional and Environment testing. Astra’s facilities are approved by several foreign companies for production
R&D Capabilities Track record of new product development; now graduated to a SYSTEM integrator in Radar. Dedicated R&D facility at Bengaluru to manufacture radars
Strong in-house capability in the microwave radio frequency (RF) applications domain. Executes orders through BTS (Build To Specifications) and BTP (Build To Print) route
Customers and Regions of Revenue
Clientele includes Indian Government Laboratories, Indian Defense
Public Sector Undertakings, Indian Space Research Organization and many foreign OEM’s
Revenue mix
Geographical spread of total revenue stands as follows: India – 60% and Exports – 40%
Applications
Defense
Radars
Electronic Warfare
Missile Electronics
Telemetry
Counter-Drones
Space
Flight Model Application
Ground based Application
INSAT MSS Terminals
Hydro/Meteorology
Water Level Measurement (Bubbler/ Radar Sensor)
Automatic Weather Stations (AWS)
Agromet Met Stations (AMS)
Automatic Rain Gauge (ARG) X Band Doppler Weather Radar
Other areas of work
Antennas
MMIC
Contract Manufacturing
Homeland Security
Awardsand Certifications
The company has various certificates such as AS9100D & BS EN ISO 9001:2015, ISO27001:2013, ISO9001:2015, ISO14001:2015, ISO45001:2018, ISO/IEC17025:2017.
Awards
LAToT Ceremony for Coastal Surveillance Radar
Excellence in Innovation, Design Technology, R&D 2021
Counter-Drone System LAToT Handing over Ceremony
Award for Excellence in Aerospace lndigenisation-2021
ELCINA EFY Award for Business Excellence
Fundamental Ratios, Cash, Loans, EBITDA,PAT etc
Debt to equity is under control < 1
ROCE, ROE> 15
Pledge 0%
Short and long term liquidity under control
Q1FY24 have been weaker than expected while Q4FY24 has been good
Opportunity Size
Various tailwinds in the defence sector are creating a wide range of opportunities for Indian firms. Company expected to hit 6000-8000cr cumulative revenue in next 5 years if TAM is correctly addressed
Triggers
Consistent order inflows
Defence spend in India has received a mega boost Opportunities to develop and supply products which are published as negative import list by GOI Government of India’s Atma Nirbhar Bharat initiatives
Bidding for the whole system – the complete radar system – for both DRDO and for future MoD requirements
Favorable policy initiatives like Buy (IDDM – Indigenously Designed, Developed and Manufactured),MAKE-II, MAKE-Ill
Expansions and Acquisitions for future growth
QIP has been done at 270 rs for Reducing working capital and corporate purposes
Operating margins can improve further
Focusing on domestic defense order can lead to 20% OPM in coming years.
We aim to achieve 70% Domestic 30% Export Revenue distribution over next 2-3 years. Domestic business on an average carries 40 to 45% of gross margin as against 8 to 10% gross margin in exports.
Order inflows
Orders are worth an aggregate amount Rs. 158 crores for supply of Software Defined Radio (SDR) by Astra Rafael Comsys Private Limited (Joint Venture) Company has received an order from India Meteorological Department (IMD) for Supply of C-Band Dual Polarized SSPA based Doppler Weather Radars for a total value of Rs.32.97 crores. Order is to be executed within a period of 18 months.
Orderbook as of March 2023 is Rs. 1,544 crores. This order book consists of only 24% of export orders rest 76% are domestic orders. The BTP segment is a major contributor of our export orders, which are executable in the next 24 months. The sales mix is anticipated to be skewed towards domestic, high margin business.
Orders are worth an aggregate amount order(s)/contract(s) awarded in brief; of Rs.16.8 crores for supply of Satellite sub-systems and weather data processing system from ISRO
Company has bagged orders worth Rs.158 crores for supply of Satellite sub-systems, Airborne Radar and sub-systems of Radar and EW projects, from DRDO, ISRO and DPSU’s
Order book of Rs. 1,956 Crores as on March 31, 2024, which is executable in the next 12 to 36 months period
Orders booked during the quarter ended 31st March 2024 are worth Rs. 472 Crores
Order book of Rs. 2,299 Crores as on March 31, 2024, which includes Rs. 105 Crores pertaining to service orders
Orders booked during the year ended 31st March 2024 are worth Rs. 1,636 Crores
Targeting JV and exploring fields like
Through JV or strategic alliances, offer improved technology and products. Target the offset requirement in large defence procurement programmes of Gol. In discussion with our JV partners to develop EO (electro-optics) product line. Bidding for the whole system – the complete radar system – for both DRDO and for future MoD requirements
Recently, we have also entered into a collaboration agreement with Teledyne e2v HiRel in order to provide semiconductor services to support the aerospace, defence, and reliability electronics markets. This agreement will pave the way for numerous new possibilities for us in the futur
Risks
Lumpy nature of domestic defence/space programs –Orders come in bulk and so are the payments.
Large working capital requirement: Gross current assets (GCAs) improved to 346 days as on March 31, 2022, from 398 days a year before, led by reduction in debtor days. GCAs are expected at around 400 days over the near to medium term with increased execution of domestic orders. The group primarily caters to domestic defence research and space establishments that usually have a long production cycle and longer working capital cycle compared with overseas orders. Though export revenue may be realised faster, it will be offset by stretch in receivables from domestic orders as domestic order execution is expected to increase in the future and thus working capital intensity would be a key monitorable. Furthermore, the group must maintain sizeable inventory to cater to all segments, as products are customised, and thus, requirements vary across segments.
Susceptibility to risks inherent in a tender-based business, and long gestation period for projects: Thebusiness depends on success in bidding for tenders invited by defence public sector undertakings and research establishments. Establishments such as the DRDO invite tenders from qualified vendors for their R&D requirement and commence bulk production on successful completion of product development. Long-term revenue visibility is primarily driven by the success of R&D projects at DRDO and the subsequent mass production of products.
Margins Volatility is high. Export vs domestic order execution changes margin profile and needs to be seen closely in coming quarters
Low Promoter holding
Cash flow from operations struggling
Technicals on 26-May-24
Disclosure –Invested. Do your own diligence before buying/selling
Disclaimer – Analysis is NOT a BUY/SELL/HOLD Recommendation. It can be used for educational purposes. There can be lot of things which have been missed in analysis either due to lack of information or oversight etc.. Do your own diligence & contact your expert financial adviser before making any investment decision.
In case you have any questions/ queries, please feel free to reach me through Contact Form
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Enjoy the day and your life. Don’t forget, we are alone in this grand universe and may not get a chance to live again.
Disclaimer – Analysis is NOT a BUY/SELL/HOLD Recommendation. It can be used for educational purposes. There can be lot of things which have been missed in analysis either due to lack of information or oversight etc.. Do your own diligence & contact your expert financial adviser before making any investment decision.
Jupiter Wagons Limited (JWL) is a provider of comprehensive mobility solutions, with diverse offerings across Freight Wagons, Locomotives, Passenger Coaches (LHB), Braking Systems, Metro Coach, Commercial Vehicles, ISO Marine Containers, and products such as Couplers, Draft Gears, Bogies, and CMS Crossings. JWL has manufacturing facilities located in Kolkata, Jamshedpur, Indore, and Jabalpur with full backward integration to its foundry operations.
With a rich legacy over four decades, the Company has leveraged its deep technological capabilities and robust financial position to emerge as a one-stop shop for mobility solutions and reinforce its position as one of the fastest growing within the industry.
Products, Segments
Railway Wagons
Commercial Vehicles incluising Electric Light Commercial Vehicle business (eLCV)
CMS Crossing
Brake Systems & Brake Disc
Containers including Flex Containers, Marine containers , BESS containers
Strengthsand Certifications
The Group has established partnerships with leading global companies such as Tatravagonka (Slovakia), DAKO-CZ (Czech Republic), Kovis Proizvodna (Slovenia), Telleres Alegria S.A (Spain).
Marquee clients associated with company
JWL is one of India’s largest wagon manufacturers, with a capacity of 9,600 wagons per annum
Improving scale of operations
Healthy order book providing revenue visibility
Experienced Management and leadership team
12 World-class manufacturing facilities
3,000+ Workforce
Clients
Catering to industries such as Railways (Freight + Passenger), Metro Rail, Automobile, Transportation, Logistics, Construction Equipment, Municipalities, Healthcare, Energy, Mining and Infrastructure, the Company boasts a marquee client base including the Indian Railways, American Railroads, Indian Ministry of Defense, Tata Motors, GE, Volvo Eicher Motors
Joint Ventures
Fundamental Ratios, Cash, Loans, EBITDA,PAT margin, Shareholding pattern
Consistent increase in sales over last 12 qtrs barring a quarter or so Profits have multiplies by 8x in last 2 years
Consistent Tax records
ROCE and ROE is reasonably above 20%
Promoter has skin in game, FII is increasing stake, DII stake is stable
Recent Developmentsand Key Triggers
Dedicated Freight corridor, Projected Wagon demand, Improving logistics share through Railways are big triggers for continuous growth of this segment
JWL has made a strategic entry into the global markets by signing a long-term Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with RITES Limited, a prominent PSU associated with the Indian Railways, to explore opportunities in the international market for railway rolling stock projects. JWL’s focus is on the design, manufacturing, and supply of Railway wagons.
The Company is focusing efforts on achieving Import Substitution, particularly in the areas of High-tech and Highend Containers. To further elevate global competitiveness, manufacturing facilities have been fully automated, enabling consistent production and maintaining world-class quality standards. The manufacturing facility is certified by both ‘LRQA’ and ‘BVQI’.
A new foundry is scheduled to be established in Jabalpur over the next 18 months with a capacity of 2,000 tonnes, catering to both captive use and exports. This initiative is expected to yield cost savings in freight expenses.
In the Marine Container Business, the outlook for specialized containers is improving as the Company has: Secured a contract for 40-foot ‘Open Top, Coil Containers’ with a pilot order worth ₹ 1,000 lakh.
Received a Letter of Intent (LOI) from an Indian Subsidiary of a Prestigious Global Group for the supply of 1,000 units of special Flex Inverter containers for the fiscal year 2024-25.
JV Company JWL DAKO CZ India Ltd. has received an order aggregating ~₹ 11,200 lakh for axle-mounted disc brake systems from Indian Railways.
The BESS container, a key element in Solar and Data Centre Containers, offering energy storage capabilities has a huge market opportunity in round-the-clock Renewable Energy Projects as well as Commercial Industrial Energy storage in both domestic and international markets. With Jupiter’s expertise in making containers for this application, we now are looking forward to adding more value for the same by creating complete integrated solutions for varied markets.
Successful Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) in May and December 2023 amounting to ~ ₹ 528cr which includes prominent investors, including DIIs like Tata MF, HSBC MF, Bandhan Equity Fund, and FII’s like Societe Generale, and Copthall Mauritius Investment Limited.
JWL is one of India’s largest wagon manufacturers, with a capacity of 9,600 wagons per annum with plans to enhance capacity to 12,000 wagons per annum by Q1 fiscal 2025.
JWL has also ventured in brake disc, brake systems for rolling stock and weldable CMS Crossing manufacturing during fiscals 2023-24 equipping JWL to capitalize on robust spendings for developing high speed train infrastructure, and to fortify its market position in this segment, in Q1 fiscal 2024 JWL has acquired Stone India Limited, having extensive infrastructure and licensing for brake manufacturing.
Valuations
Looking at their growth currently and opportunity size in coming years, Stock is trading at fair value. Once the capacity comes online and if company executes the order well , it might look undervalued intermittently
Risks
Exposure to risks relating to fluctuation in raw material prices and intense competition: The key inputs include steel and related products. While the IR projects generally have a long execution period and are covered by a price-variation clause to a large extent, private sector orders are generally fixed in nature.
Cash flows poses a big risk due to intensive working capital operations
Valuations are subjective but definitely its not hugely undervalued in short term
Most orders are from Railways and have this dependency in business, though company is trying to diversify
Technicals on 11-May-24
Conclusion
If you have understood the triggers and industries it cater to + RISKS which can materialize and have patience then think of buying this company in every dip, market offers, else Ignore the stock
Stock might be volatile in short term and give a chance to buy around 425-525 range for long term investment purpose
Disclaimer – Analysis is NOT a BUY/SELL/HOLD Recommendation. It can be used for educational purposes. There can be lot of things which have been missed in analysis either due to lack of information or oversight etc.. Do your own diligence & contact your expert financial adviser before making any investment decision.
In case you have any questions/ queries, please feel free to reach me through Contact Form
Do spread the word among your peers, family members or anyone who can benefit from this blog and asked them to subscribe. But be selfish and take care of yourself first by subscribing before they do.
Enjoy the day and your life. Don’t forget, we are alone in this grand universe and may not get a chance to live again.